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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (27065)	9/24/1999 1:55:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

QQQ TA and truth drugs: Getting more clear that support at 121 is broken. If we drift back up to the 120-122 range, stall, and can't go higher, then I'll buy more puts. Still holding all the puts I bought earlier, as we haven't had a 10% fall off the highs yet. Even if we do come up above 121, I think there is only a tiny probability of going above 127.5. The market's mood is so timid, breaking above the previous trading range, and setting new all-time highs, is only a remote possibility. And stocks like INTC are now participating fully in the overall market decline. Their immunity is gone. So, not much risk in Nasdaq 100 puts at these levels. I just slipped some truth drugs into Bezos's cocktail. That was so much fun yesterday, with the Microsoft guy and Cramer, I thought I'd do it again. Here's what you'll hear today: "I expect that, going forward, Amazon is going to continue to have spectacular sales growth. However, we've discovered that selling books and toys is still a low-margin commodity industry, even more so on the net. So, even if we learn to be the most efficient company in our industry, we'll still never make much profit. And we've learned that costs (for programmers stock options, and building warehouses) are much higher than expected. Given this, I'd say our stock is (still) overvalued, and should go down." Tomorrow, I'm going to find someone on the Merck Board of Directors, who'll say: "Our stock, along with the entire drug sector, is down quite a bit. You might think that this is an opportunity to buy a quality company with steady earnings, at a value price. Think again. Here are the numbers: We're only going to be growing EPS, going forward, at about 14% a year. Our trailing PE is 30 (the 5-year range is 12-41), and our forward PE is 24. Those PEs are still too high. Our stock is overvalued and should go down. And what's true for us is true for every big drug company."