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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clay Takaya who wrote (9643)	9/24/1999 12:44:00 PM
From: Zoltan!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

>>3. Mr. Fun decided that the qtr was going to be made and so went "overweight" on CSCO at a good price. LOL! An oracle he ain't. He posted that after the quarter's results were in! Until earnings were public he was negative, going so far as to predict that Cisco would go down after earnings like LU, because Cisco hadn't corrected like LU had. Check the Cisco thread. Message 10893900 >>None of this is inconsistent with his position of favoring LU over CSCO as an investment at this point. As history has shown, inconsistency would be an improvement.

To: Clay Takaya who wrote (9643)	9/24/1999 2:12:00 PM
From: Mr.Fun	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 21876

Clay, Thank you for your kind words. Don't worry about Gary chasing me off the boards, as pretty much the only reason I post here at all is to counter commentary that I believe is misleading. In that respect, OG is, in fact, drawing me into the fray rather than the opposite. Now, as to your assertions: 1. Although I wish I had been overweight Cisco before the Q, we did load up just after. It has been a very good decision, Mr. Balmer's comments notwithstanding. 2. You are correct in inferring that our investment horizon is considerably shorter than the individual investors who are the vast majority of posters here. My call on Cisco is for about 9 months and I do believe it will outperform for that timeframe. 3. My shift in viewpoint about Cisco as a near term investment had to do with the following factors: A) Access routers, Highend routers (inc. 7500 routers), and Gigabit/Layer3 Enet switches are on fire for Cisco, and by my forecast will add some $2.7B in revenue growth for FY00; B) Cisco's accounts receivable - having dropped from over 50 DSO to 32 in a couple quarters - is highly suggestive of a dramatic change in linearity. Most companies do 50% or more of sales in the last month of a quarter, I believe Cisco now saves alot of those shipments for the first month of the next quarter, yielding a reverse linearity. This is a long way of saying that I think Cisco will weather what should be difficult demand conditions in the 4th calendar quarter. 4. I absolutely believe that Cisco overstates its position as a strategic vendor into the core of carrier networks and I applaud Mr. Petrie from TheStreet.com (whom I haven't met, but who's writing I respect) for having the guts to say so in print. I have heard Cisco can be mighty vindictive to reporters who write uncomplementary articles. 5. This is neither here nor there with regard to Cisco's worth as a short term investment which, again I state, is strong. 6. I absolutely believe that there will be multiple winners in this space - LU, CSCO and NT the prime examples. Of these, I believe LU has the strongest hand (optical, wireless, software and data) as well as the most room for multiple expansion - thus the strong overweight which we have been adding to for 6 weeks. 7. Another factor behind our enthusiasm for LU is a key shift in working capital and as a result Cash flow. Please refer to my exchanges with mr. Chuzzlewit for further detail. Much of the street is waiting for this improvement - look for significant positive moves after this quarter. I find it curious as to why Gary is so consistently contemptuous of LU executives, products, and strategies, yet claims to be holding LU stock. As for Zoltan!, he is a classic front-runner who's job in life appears to be finding articles complementary to CSCO to post on SI and insulting others who stray from his monolithic world view. At least Gary makes an attempt to learn about other companies and occasionally presents his own analyses to support his views.