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To: Think4Yourself who wrote (51825)	9/25/1999 5:15:00 AM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

JQP, Whither the weather? Thought this would cheer your weekend, and all the good SD'ers, the girl child prospers!: CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP September 10, 1999 The overall patterns of oceanic surface and subsurface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific indicate that cold episode conditions (La Niña) strengthened during August. This is a reversal of the weakening trend that was observed from the beginning of the year through July. During August negative SST anomalies strengthened in the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1, compare left panels), and negative anomalies more than 1°C below normal extended from 170°W eastward to 120°W. There has also been an increase in the strength of the anomalous low-level easterly winds during the last two months, and a continued suppression of convection over the central and western equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1, center and right panels, respectively). Consistent with these features, the thermocline has been deeper than normal in the western equatorial Pacific and shallower than normal in the eastern equatorial Pacific. This has resulted in a dipole pattern of positive/ negative subsurface temperature anomalies in the western/ eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. 2), which is typically observed during the mature phase of cold episodes. The lack of any significant eastward shift in the positive subsurface temperature anomalies in the west-central equatorial Pacific indicates that the cold episode is likely to continue for the next several months. This assessment is supported by the most recent NCEP coupled model forecasts and other available coupled model and statistical predictions indicating cold episode conditions persisting through May 2000. Weekly updates for SST, 850-hPa wind, and OLR are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage at: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov (Weekly Update). La Niña Discussion updated: September 22, 1999 Cold episode (La Niña) conditions strenthened throughout the tropical Pacific during August. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) averaged more than 1°C below normal across the tropical Pacific between 170°W and 120°W. Also, the oceanic thermocline shoaled across the east-central and eastern Pacific during the month with temperatures at thermocline depth decreasing to more than 4°C below normal in that region. Tropical convection [as inferred from anomalous outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)] remained suppressed across the western and central equatorial Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia and the eastern Indian Ocean during the month. The low-level equatorial winds have remained stronger than normal over the western and central Pacific since June 1998, and weaker than normal in the eastern Pacific. The latest forecast models are fairly consistent in predicting cold episode conditions to continue into March-May 2000. Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA/National Weather Service W/NP52, RM 605, WWB 5200 Auth Road Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304 e-mail: wd52vk@hp31.wwb.noaa.gov Regards to all, Roebear