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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SeaViewer who wrote (27097)	9/24/1999 4:33:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Jeff, i agree that both Japanese exporters and various hedge funds trapped in Yen carry trade positions are just waiting for intervention to give them an opportunity to unload dollars for Yen. so likely the impact of intervention will be short-lived. there's also the simple fact that a burgeoning trade deficit just doesn't argue for a strong dollar.only as long as overseas investment demand keeps pace with the current account deficit can the dollar remain stable. i would argue that there is no guarantee that it will continue to do so at tje current level of interest rates and the stock market looking wobbly. there are many hopes pinned on the G7 meeting to result in some market saving accord, but i believe the antagonism felt by Japanese officials toward Larry Summers is under-appreciated in the west. his remarks constantly inflict loss of face on Japanese public figures and the more nationalistic elements in Japan and Asia in general are becoming more assertive of late. note also the World Banks recent about-face on Malaysia's introduction of capital controls. i can't help but get the impression that the cause of liberal capitalism is increasingly suffering setbacks lately and that in turn strengthens the hands of the nationalistic element in Japanese politics and could result in major differences marring the G7 pow-wow. we'll see what their communique says, but i'm not sure the markets will like it. regards, hb