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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (27100)	9/24/1999 4:35:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Lee, Today's rebound could be due to the SHORTs taking profit. Regardless, the trend has turned to the downside and I would be a bit nervous if overly long. Yes this bounce could last a bit more, but not much more. Too many negatives. For the DOW THEORISTs the TRAN and UTY have broken their 200 DMA, so the common belief is that the DOW will follow. Today we again saw some sector rotation with some stocks moving up strongly like AOL. My position which I have been stating since MAR is that SECTOR ROTATION at these types of extremes is an anomoly and before the overall market can return to a nice uptrend, such needs to be corrected. With the DOW down around 1000 points(about 10%) this SECTOR ROTATION anaomoly is still not corrected. There's more downside, but it may not come right away and Im not one to subscribe to crash senerios, since the probability of predicting a one day crash day is so low. I need to see some more capitulation to say that we hit some sort of a meaningful bottom, not just a short-term bottom. The dipsters did go to work today, but then again it could just have been shorts taking profit. If the market closed at its highs I may have concluded that we did hit a short-term bottom, but it didnt, so Im not sure. Seeya

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (27100)	9/24/1999 10:59:00 PM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Respond to of 99985

L3, Ralph Bloch said almost exactly the same thing as you: "'The likelihood of any rally that starts around here (these stock levels) having any chance of success is between none and zero,'' said Ralph Bloch, chief technical analyst at Raymond James and Associates in St. Petersburg, Fla." Hmmmm. between none and zero. not much wiggle room there! -g- Whereas you said, "I really don't see any possibility of a meaningful rally from here unless they find out that tech stocks cure cancer or something over the weekend. <ggg>" biz.yahoo.com Later in that article..."Raymond James's Bloch said the market would have to 'blow away 10,000, at least' and perhaps fall to 9,700 to 9,800 before staging a sustainable rally."