Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (8854)	9/25/1999 11:10:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

I find it rather interesting if we look at the top formation in 1976 leading to a bear that Bob has alluded to as a possible model for a similar pattern going on now that after our correction and test in early Sept we now have a new correction in the 9% range so far which would almost precisely correspond with the final correction in 1976 which then led to a final test of the highs and a bear market. It is also noteworthy that while Bob in recent weeks has been talking about the money supply and economy as the factors that are keeping his model from a sell he has also recently been noting the continued deterioration in money supply growth. While obviously things will be ideal if Bob correctly calls a bear near the highs I would have to figure regardless of a call by Bob's model among numerous possibilities we might want to consider two that effect our views and our actions:1) We are looking at a final correction in a mortally wounded bear that will have just enough energy for a final test of the highs before we fall into the abyss of a full fledged bear and 2) We got our final look at the highs on 9/3/99 when we closed at 11,078 a bit off the final high made on 8/25/99 of 11,326 and we are now in the beginning stages of a bear. Bob's near silence on the prognosis of the market today was IMO a little bit deafening. If the timing model has been deteriorating for a while and we had a nice little move back to the highs in early Sept at a time he was expressing great caution I wonder while maintaining the needed discipline to strictly follow the model what his market intuition was at the time based on his many years of knowledge and experience. Of course if AJC, Batman, Lady Elaine and the others prove right and this has been a bunch of backing and filling on the way to new heights then Bob following a fully invested position as called for by his model will prove brilliant. Otherwise the only way things will work out well is by the model getting us out before a bear at the same 11k area we've visited numerous times Marc