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To: Mani1 who wrote (23119)	9/25/1999 7:44:00 AM
From: FJB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

Mani, Currently there does not exist any stepper in operation that does 100 WPH on 300mm. Thanks for acknowledging that. It did not read like you were aware of that in a previous post. Industry trends are: the continuos shrinking of IC's Just the opposite, feature sizes continue to shrink, but ICs keep getting bigger over time(this is in the industry roadmap). As a simple example, a first generation 1Gb DRAM will be larger than a first generation 16Mb DRAM, even though it will be made about four process generations later. Again, please refer to the industry roadmap. This is one reason for the move to scanners from steppers. expansion of wafers size (currently from 200mm to 300mm) The bridge lithography tools will do the larger area, but with about half the throughput. To get to 100 WPH on 300mm, you will need faster wafer stages and higher frequency/power lasers, which cost more money. Most 300mm fabs will have brand new scanners with brand new lasers, so I can't view 300mm as a negative. increasing through put from each stepper(lasers). Again, higher throughput does not come for free, you need higher frequency/power lasers. That is one of the key selling points for 2KHz lasers, which sell for more money than 1KHz lasers. All these three trends results in lower growth (than other wise) for steppers and scanners compared with back end equipment which do not have ALL these disadvantages. This is the first I've heard of this. "Experts" in forecasting the industry see large growth in lithography from a revenue perspective. In fact, the forecasts I've seen indicate lithography will comprise more of the cap. ex. pie. Units tend to be about the same at peaks, but the tools and their components get more expensive over time. This has been the case and there are no indications it will not continue to be the case. If you are predicting a reversal in this historical trend, on what do you base your prediction? As far as the ASP's are concerned I did not make any particular guess. I thought you said ASPs are going down, but may be mistaken. All indications are that they are going up, along with the price of lithography tools. Bob