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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Apollo who wrote (7014)	9/25/1999 7:07:00 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Respond to of 54805

Excellent post, Snasraway. Obviously, not only you, but Dan Niles is a little miffed at Intel and how things have been managed. If one's time frame is indeed longer term, no matter what happens to the share price of Intel and Rambus short term, are we as gorilla game investors expecting too much when it comes to building out new technologies and the variation a schedule must take to introduce that new technology? Who has ever had a house built or remodeled when the proposed schedule was met? Sure, it does happen from time to time. I think we are talking about quite a complex process for Intel. How complex? I think that even when one allows for a flexible schedule which contains the most optimistic as well as the least optimistic time frame in terms of bringing all the various complexities of what needs to take place for the camino/board/rambus combination together and ready for market, those engineering the entire process can't even predict the amount of time needed to overcome all eventual scenarios. No matter how well intentioned. What's the history of engineers and management in terms of schedule coordination in the high tech business? I agree with you that Intel will probably address the issues in some sort of press release - sooner rather than later. I think we have to be willing to forgive the chain involved - no matter how well intentioned the original schedules were designed. Yes, I agree that some share price punishment may indeed continue to occur. I believe the manual states that when such short sighted punishment does occur, it's time to think about increasing the amount of dancers on the dance floor for the long term benefits of the gorilla game waltzing wave. As on any waltz floor, the sell-side will be bumping into us and stepping on our toes as we waltz on by. BB

To: Apollo who wrote (7014)	9/25/1999 10:52:00 AM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Great post, Apollo. I'm confident that if/when Rambus and Intel get their act together and things really start to move, you and others will let us know. Since these questions are so complicated that I do not fully trust my own judgments of the technology and markets involved, one of my own benchmarks will be a move in the price back up above, say, 100-105, indicating broad confidence that the prospects look good and the revenues are going to come in. If Rambus truly has such a great future, there will be plenty of upside above that to capture. Mike comments that "all the [Rambus] product adopters are just as motivated today as yesterday. All the members of Rambus' value chain are just as motivated. Fundamentally, there's been no significant change in the evolving story of this gorilla wannabe." Perhaps, but outside the game industry (a relatively small niche), the product adopters have never been particularly motivated to begin with, it seems. More importantly, the key questions here are not just about Rambus itself, but about Rambus IN COMPARISON WITH OTHER INVESTMENTS AT THIS POINT. I keep thinking of Lindy's relatively smug but compelling arguments about why it made sense for him to leave QCOM years ago and then get back in last March. Like Stan, I am now ~60% Q. Like you, I am now in SEBL, CTXS, and GMST. Like you will <g>, I just increased my GMST stake a bit early Friday. For me, the crux of the matter is, does RMBS appear to have a better risk/reward ratio over the next several months than those wonderful holdings? or better even than Kings and PWAs in high growth areas like JDSU or PMCS? I'm just doubtful, that's all. tekboy PS to UF, who would "like to get my bride on the thread so she can get an idea of our game [and would] bet a dollar to a doughnut she'd appreciate our methodology once she saw it at work." Fat chance! For the moment, at least, Niece Sheri is more stubborn than Aunt Nancy!

To: Apollo who wrote (7014)	9/27/1999 7:48:00 AM
From: FLSTF97	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

I think that RMBS epitomizes a fundamental aspect of the GG in that until it definitively crosses the chasm, it exhibits a high risk. Translated as we have seen into great volatility. IMO RMBS seems to be about to make the far side of the chasm (pictures a chimp teetering on the edge, heels over the chasm toes grasping for footing on the crumbling edge!) The recent news just illustrates how hard it is to successfully cross! One thing does bother me greatly though relative to Intel. In having dealt with them for about 20 years, I've come to see them as extremely conservative when it comes to protecting their franchise and as having extremely adept management. So why did this midnight hour problem occur? I find it really hard to believe that they (let their customers) progress(ed) so far down this road without discovering this problem. FWIW I think RMBS still belongs on Gorilla apprentice list. Even at this new price level, I'm not convinced it is a steal but the risk reward relationship is trending in the right direction.