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Pastimes : Let's Talk About Our Feelings!!! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dayuhan who wrote (55984)	9/25/1999 11:03:00 AM
From: jbe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 108807

Steve -- Anatol Lieven is an old buddy of mine (and a Britisher), and in this piece he seems to be more or less on target (except that, contrary to his expectations, Chechnya, not Dagestan, has turned into the real theater of war here). In some spots, he seems a little behind the curve, e.g.: "The appallingly high body count could spark a Russian backlash against Caucasian people in general, increasing ethnic hatred in Russia..." As my WT piece pointed out, such ethnic hatred has already been "sparked," even deliberately fanned by the "authorities." Yes, it is true that Chechnya has been more or less taken over -- and terrorized -- by criminal groups. Why do you think no journalists are there? (Answer: danger of kidnapping.) The local population suffers more than anyone else from this: for example, few people know that the overwhelming majority of kidnapping victims are, in fact, themselves Chechens. President Maskhadov has been too weak/too cowardly (take your pick) to suppress it, although he has tried. I don't think Lieven is suggesting that a radical Islamic state is already in place; rather, he has not developed the contrast between the radical militants and everyone else sufficiently. Yes, we are being prepped. The Lieven piece was written before the Russians started hitting major cities, thus destroying the myth that their offensive in Chechnya is aimed only against 'terrorist bases." But the Russians have learned what they call "the lessons of Kosovo": rely on air power to do most of the job; don't risk the lives of your own men. This is the scenario I see them operating on: 1) Major bombing raids will totally destroy what infrastructure is left in Chechnya. Already hit: airport, oil refineries, factories. 2) Next, Russians will cut off all gas, electricity, cellular phone (there are no other kinds of phones there right now)communication. (Beginning.) 3) When population is totally starving, freezing, etc., it will be ready to accept anything/everything, and Russians will march in, unimpeded. This triumphal march will take place either in the next few days, or much later, in the early spring. (The late fall/early winter is a bad time to begin, as the Russians learned last time around.) The last expectation is somewhat unrealistic. The tactics the Russians are following are more likely to make the few remaining Chechens in Chechnya (only about 300,000 of them left there!) close ranks with the "criminals," in a common effort against the Russians; certainly every beardless teenager in the republic will take up arms against them... The Russians are in a vindictive mood. They want Chechnya back -- but a Chechnya without any Chechens in it. Joan