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Strategies & Market Trends : TradersChoice 2000 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (183)	9/25/1999 11:01:00 AM
From: Jeff Jordan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 604

GZ, It's good to see experienced traders like you visit here...I hope to learn from you and everyone else. I know I've learned a lot reading Ike's posts. I'm not aggressive at all. Maybe, on those hot market days....I usually sit back patiently and wait for clear directions. I'm always cautious, I have been overly cautious on many of my market reads in the past. The market and many stocks have turned up prior to hitting my targets. But I'm usually pretty close. I agree some accumulation of some stocks is warranted here....I have no doubt higher prices are coming...and I know we don't have much longer to wait. The market reaction to the first 2 FOMC rate hikes caught me by surprise....I had a totally different picture in mind. But, I was happy to jump right in during the upswing of the 2nd hike. Or do I have that backwards my memory is really bad. I know we went up on one and down on the other....I do remember I was expecting the opposite. I know the second hike was unexpected....I think that's the one that moved us higher. If I remember correctly the market reacted poorly to the first hike because it didn't feel it was enough? So 2 weeks later we got the second...isn't that right? Anyway, I'm not concerned about another .25 increase if we get it.....either,way I agree we move up only because it's behind us and earnings season will be in full force. I guess back in July I was expecting a bigger correction and we never got it. So I have been leary ever since....now that we're in the historical correction months of Sep/Oct I'm jumpier than ever. I'm normally a position trader not a day trader. So, instead of 3-5pt swings I'm scalping on volatile days. 1/2-1 1/2. I'm not particularly a great trader...I often sell good positions to take/keep profits. I know I can usually find another equally good trade or buy back on a pullback...if I'm wrong I move on...but with a winner not a loss. I have good days and bad days as far as my execution skills and performance. When I know I'm not trading up to my usual level I sit back and wait it out until my confidence and performance level improves. I would normally hold a stock like ELNK until it reaches the heights I know it may hit soon. But for the past month I have refused to hold anything. Unfortunately now I'm holding for a day, hour, minutes, whatever it takes to produce a gain. This will change soon. I'll go back to playing my scans for 2-8pt swings. I admit I'm less worried about getting hurt bad now if I hold any large positions since many stocks have corrected pretty well. But it is still my view we have a little bit more left....maybe 9800, I know the market usually over does it...that's why back in July I was surprised...we never over did it. Over doing it this time to me would be 9300-9500 Friday, we were only 300pts from my target....a day or two move. I am expecting a technical bounce Monday....but will not have any conviction in it yet....but if we begin breaking some of the upper resistance levels I will change my views. 1300 1318 1328 1338 1352 I still believe if this correction is to continue we will see 1250 and even 1230 is possible....I like these lower levels only because that would make for a powerful upswing....it has been my plan to start buying 1250? so if my record of predicting holds....the upswing will start at 1258!<g> But, I still see so many overvalued stocks I have to believe my lower targets will be hit. It's amazing Alan Greenspan hasn't been able to talk the market down or even slow it w/ rate increases....But a few comments made by Mircosofts president Steve Ballmer insite a correction? those are my thoughts and mindset...right or wrong. Historically many stocks are off 65% of their highs after a major correction....and afterward these stocks give the greatest returns....these are what I will be zeroing in on....so I feel every 5% of my capital I preserve now will return 20+% in the near future. Best, Jeff