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To: Captain Jack who wrote (67919)9/25/1999 10:35:00 AM
From: Elwood P. Dowd  Respond to of 97611
 
From The Registar..... Posted 24/09/99 6:09pm by Simon Burns in Taipei

Graphics cards, Intel chipsets hit badly in quake aftershock

Manufacturers of a wide range of computer and electronics products will be hit by a shortage of key
components following Tuesday's earthquake, say analysts and industry sources in Taipei.

"Some companies simply can't produce right now, for example the fabs (chip makers) in Hsinchu,"
said Paul Meyer of Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia, "Other companies aren't willing to produce until
they get a steady feed of power.... So you may get a notebook company that's ready to ship a
notebook, but they're waiting for a tiny plastic component."

Chip makers in Hsinchu's science park hope to be back in operation next week, but say uncertainties
over power prevent them giving a firm date.

The world's two largest contract chip makers, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) and
United Microelectronics Corp.(UMC) are near standstill, along with most of their competitors. Two
small memory chip makers, Nanya Technology, and Powerchip Semiconductor, which have
independent power suppliers, say they have restarted production.

"TSMC and UMC have got a big problem," an executive at a Taipei-based computer products maker
said, "the reason is not only the power supply issue, but also they have some mechanical issues over
there. So the recovery will take a long time."

More than three quarters of the world's graphics chips are made at UMC and TSMC. "There's definitely
going to be a components shortage for the industry," said Marx Li, marketing manager at graphics
card maker, Leadtek Research, "our suppliers have already told us that in the short term there will be
supply problems."

"Fortunately, because the fourth quarter is high season, " Li said, "we have 30 days to 45 days
inventory of chips. So in the short term we're still okay, but I don't know about the middle of
November."

Leadtek's factories in Taipei County are currently idle, Li said, but would probably restart on Monday.
The company's surface mount technology (SMT)lines (where chips and other components are
mounted onto printed circuit boards), which may have been shaken out of alignment during the quake,
need to be recalibrated. The SMT machinery also needs a stable power supply to run, Li said

End user prices for graphics cards and other products will probably rise, said Mr. Li, but he was
unable to estimate the size of the increase. "That depends on the new prices quoted by our supplier."

Graphics chip suppliers have told Leadtek that delivery will be delayed, and prices will be increased, Li
said. "They don't know enough about the damage at TSMC and UMC, so they cannot make a final
decision yet."

There are no problems with production lines at major motherboard and notebook computer maker
Asustek, said a company representative, but supply of some components, in particular, chipsets is a
potential problem.

Motherboard and PC makers may find it harder to get chipsets, said Don Floyd, of Credit Lyonnais
Securities Asia in Taipei.

Independent chipset vendors like VIA Technologies, Silicon Integrated Systems, and Acer Labs
source almost all their chips from companies in Hsinchu, and may have no second source, he said.
There is also an continuing shortage of Intel chipsets, such as the 440BX, and Intel's new 810 chipset
has proved unpopular with motherboard and system designers.

The government's National Science Council has intervened with the state-owned power company on
behalf of chip makers. Taipower will be providing 80 to 85 per cent of power requirements by Monday,
and possibly as soon as Saturday, said representatives of TSMC and UMC.

"It's very hard for us to precisely assess damage from the earthquake," a TSMC spokesman said on
Thursday evening, "at least we need to wait for power to come back so we can allow the whole team
to start to check the production line."

"Some of the wafers in the line... you can see by the broken mould that they should be scrapped.",
said TSMC's spokesman, "However, lots of wafers still look good, but we should take a lot of time,
equipment and resources to check if they can be reworked or not."

The TSMC representative said that it was quite likely Hsinchu's chip plants could return to normal
within two or three days, but in the worst case, nine or 10 days would be needed. ®







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To: Captain Jack who wrote (67919)9/25/1999 10:50:00 AM
From: Andreas  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 97611
 
This disaster is absolutely disasterous!

Right now the pundits are painting all semi's and pc companies with the same negative, doom and gloom paint brush. The reality is that different companies will be impacted in very different ways by the earthquake in taiwan. Guys like dan niles and kumar are a joke. Don't forget that both these guys said to sell intc a few months back when intc was in mid 50s. Both have been surprisingly quiet since about may/june. A friend of mine sold his intc based on the downgrade and gloomy outlook from kumar a few months ago only to watch his newly sold intc stock rise from 55 to 87. So, i'm not about to buy into this "all pc stocks are going to get killed" mentality. Yes, there indeed will be negative consequences but we'll simply have to wait and see who is impacted and by how much. From what little i see so far it appears that cpq will be impacted less than say dell. Why? (1) geography of cpq suppliers versus dell suppliers, (2) higher inventory at cpq, (3) cpq's varied talents and resources and hence better ability to improvise and problem solve for shortages, (4) bigger clout with supplies vis-a-vis a dell, gtw or muei. After all isn't a supplier going to want to satisfy its largest customer before say its third largest customer? Indeed, there is a real possibility that cpq will be able to actually pick up market share due to disproportionate shortages at competitors such as dell, gtw, etc.

Time will tell. Good luck folks we desperately need it. Smarts, research and due diligence simply do not work with this stock.