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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Apollo who wrote (7045)	9/25/1999 3:26:00 PM
From: pala	Respond to of 54805

Thanks thread for bringing me up to speed on Rambus, Snasrayway your insight is priceless, as are all the others <<This trusting of what corporations tell us, which then gets amplified by analysts and by the media is a very important issue. Aren't we all just as dependent on Q and Gemstar and MSFT in being honest when they issue press releases and make announcements? We would all seem to be susceptible to being blindsided here. Is there any way to avoid this?>> Yes there is wait until the tech is across the chasm and into the tornado, at this point it has a life of it's own. And most of the rewards are still available. My problem is the press made Rambus a Gorilla way to early and people who haven't RTFM are freaking out, having given it Gorilla valuation. In TFM on pg.31 they state "the bowling alley stage is thus the earliest moment that a high-tech company can truely define itself as a growing concern" (regardless of what the press and other people who haven't RTFM think) It is also the earliest investable moment in the GG. So if we want to jump the gun, gamble and buy early thats fine as long as we are not in denial about the gambling part. I suspect that Rambus is across the chasm and heading for Gorilladom in the gaming market. Again I don't follow this one, so it's a guess. I read something recently in Time or Newsweek about the new Saga? and the gaming industry approaching the movie industry in gross earnings with much better margins (but you'd have to seperate Sonys gaming from the rest). Perhaps someone familar with gaming could document this and we will have a exceptional buying oportunity on what? a nitche Gorilla? as a result of the up coming FUD on the Intel PC market. Thanks Again Doug

To: Apollo who wrote (7045)	9/25/1999 3:28:00 PM
From: Bruce Brown	Respond to of 54805

I agree that launching new technology paradigms can be littered with glitches, and we need to be patient about this. Nevertheless, apart from glitches, Intel was not forthcoming. It has to do with truth in lending, and setting up expectations that are not to be fulfilled. That is a different issue, and I am looking for comment from you and others on this. It's probably moot at this point until we hear the collective spin from Intel/Rambus/Dell. Who knows? Maybe it really did come down to the wire before a flaw was discovered that forced the delay. Perhaps the timing of the discovery of whatever is causing the delay was really 'last minute' and Intel, until that fatal minute, was under the assumption that the September 27th launch could have been met. All the while, engineers were pulling all night stints in the lab and attempting to solve the problem. As I said, we could speculate on through the weekend, but until we hear it from the correct sources - it's rather moot. I don't want to discredit your frustration because it is certainly allowed and real. My 6 years as an Intel investor has taught me that management has always been pretty honest. I see no reason to let the issue soil my trust in this investment's excellent management. BB

To: Apollo who wrote (7045)	9/25/1999 7:58:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 54805

Stan, Nevertheless, apart from glitches, Intel was not forthcoming. It has to do with truth in lending, and setting up expectations that are not to be fulfilled. That is a different issue, and I am looking for comment from you and others on this. That is one of the reasons waiting for product adoption to cross the chasm or, in the case of enabling technologies, waiting for them to enter the tornado increases the safety factor. From a purely economic point of view, I don't really care what the reason is that a product doesn't meet customers' needs enough to adopted on a fairly widespread basis. Naturally, I prefer that all the heads of divisions and companies that are members of a value chain be forthright, open and frank. But it doesn't happen all the time and that is part of the reason there is greater risk in investing in enabling technologies before they enter the tornado. Do you think everyone at Microsoft has always been upfront, completely truthful, open, etc., etc., etc., in the course of that company's history of bringing out new products? --Mike Buckley