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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stephen M. DeMoss who wrote (27220)	9/25/1999 6:52:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Heck I don't know what I see. <ggg> If there was no FOMC meeting in 2 weeks, I would say that my charts show the high possibility of a short term bounce in the broader market but that this bounce would not go too far before the down trend would resume. The weekly charts clearly show that we are in an area where we should continue to sell off however with teh over sold readings I have in the daily charts, there just isn't the room for a major downleg immediatly (of course now that I said this, we will have a Black Monday). As far as sector rotation, who knows what the big money will chase next however the weekly charts favor the CEX, pretty soon a bounce of some sort in financials and my XLB spider chart for basic materials showed some promise. The NDX is holding strong so even though it needs to fall, the mania might try to stick around enough to frustrate us until it gets ugly. The main problem with my scenario is that the FOMC meeting falls too close to my projected drop time frame so I am starting to sing a different tune as the weekend progresses. I am now leaning towards a trading range that is lower than our last one. I recall one like this in the past but haven't looked for it yet but it was in 98. I think we could get a small valid bounce and possibly a short squeeze rally but then we will drop back down as we grind both bears and bulls killling time until the FOMC meeting on the 5th. This would kill the premiums on the options buyers and allow the big money to scalp both long and short favoring them over the smaller players. I think the trading range will straddle my middle tines and the 200 DMA for the most part with a bias for the lower end as it keeps the DMA soft in case it is needed later. <g> To be honest, I just am not sure but I am still favoring the short term bounce scenario and as I ran through my charts, I didn't see many good short term short plays but was able to find some longs worthy of scalps. Long term I didn't see anything I liked yet. Most of the good stocks I want need to come down a lot more and I still haven't seen enough fear or volume. Rukeyser made me so nautious Friday I had to change channels as he spouted his bullish dribble. I hate to wish harm on anyone but I would like to see him fully invested as we get a crash that pails 1929. Between him and that commercial with teh father from Frazier where he doesn't worry about the market because he has a Fund he trusts that runs every 10 minutes here. Now that you are even more confused than before I posted, I will let everyone else put thier opinions out. Simply put, I think a bounce this week ealry, then down move late week to early next week but possibly nothing major due to eh FOMC meeting. OT By the way, can you believe my luck. Got notified I will be playing war games the 5th, living in a tent with no internet so I will be totally clueless as to what the Fed does until I get home. The military and the stock market just do not mix. My leave was disapproved. Argggh!!!! I think I would be better off getting out and flipping burgers at McDonalds on night shift. Heck they pay the same and McDs has better benefits since Clinton slashed us to death. To stay off topic a bit more, saw a survey Friday taken across the military, 70% of first term military is planning on getting out at the end of thier enlistment. Rest well America, your military is going AWOL due to budget cuts. We can only get recruits now that barely speak engilsh and have the IQs of goldfish and all the old timers and middle tiers are abandoning ship. With labor so tight, we all know we can get better jobs onthe outside without even trying hard. Good Luck, Lee