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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (131)	9/25/1999 10:03:00 PM
From: Voltaire	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 35685

Jim, good question. I think we pretty well agree that the Houses can with everything else being pretty benign turn the markets in their favor, the key is trying to determine what their immediate agenda might be. When I am trying to do this, I look for not just the lights on the horizon but which one is brightest. In other words, what is going to determine their agenda. Is it going to be the proverbial October down draft, is it going to be the terrific earnings you talked about, is it going to be the fear of Y2K, is it going to be a earlier than normal Jan. effect. Well, in my opinion, the Brightest Star On The Horizon is the Year 2000 ITSELF. Yes I feel this is going to determine their agenda and therefore I see the following. 1. There will be no SEVERE October down draft. 2. They will play with our heads beginning Monday but this will not last but about 10 days. In other words they will begin doing exactly what happened Friday. Apparently drastic downs to test the smaller Firms fear level but not to the point our beloved Frenchman talks about. Then they will almost always bring the market back on a gradually ascending scale. 3. There is not going to be tremendous selling as a reaction to Y2K. The buying could be less but no great sell-off. 4. Should begin pretty good rally first week of Oct. A fair pullback first 10 days of Nov. and I predict a EARLY JANUARY EFFECT beginning almost immediately after Thanksgiving. The reason for this is everyone in the market knows a great rally should come after the first of the year. This is where the element of TIME, not timing comes into play. Because of all the intervening variables the Houses do not have enough time nor inclination for a severe correction. They can make just as much money at this juncture by letting the market go on up for at least the first quarter of 2000, that is when they will sit back and say OK, what do we do now. This is why I ADORE the 2000 calls on QCOM and RNWK. As for a wholesale attempt to bring the Techs back, no, this was pretty well demonstrated when AOL was allowed to ascend this past Friday, that was my first question when I called in from the course, WHAT DID AOL DO? That was extremely important. The biggest problem we have immediately is the HOUSES love ORDER. That is why there will be a slow period right in here. They will not allow this market to get on too big a roll because they know what is going to happen come 2000. I think I have mentioned how the Houses love predictability and this really favors stock like QCOM, RNWK, MSFT, CSCO etc, and I am sure you are asking why. Very simple, what type of companies give you the most predictability, yes, QUASI- MONOPLIES. That is why I am loading up on RNWK and QCOM. In closing, do I think they will pay for these stocks in here, yes but only because they are going higher. Remember the stocks that are tale-tale and keep your eye on them. AOL, CSCO, MSFT, DELL, INTC, GE, IBM and T along with a few others. They showed their hand a lot with AOL Friday. Sorry about the length. P.S. - Do not believe they will raise rates in OCT. From the porch, Voltaire