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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sean sanders who wrote (27240)	9/25/1999 6:25:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Respond to of 99985

Sean, while nobody knows the future, i believe the market gives you clues, i believe i presented some clues here where the market is going. I think the fact that the Dow bounced off the 200dma is off less importance than it's break of the trading range on expanding nyse volume, my guess about 30% above the 50 day average, confirming a Dow Theory Sell Signal (which a lot are taking as a buy signal -g-), the DJU breaking a 2.5 year trendline and the transports already in the dumps with former internet stock FDX issuing a profit warning. The Hammer candle could be a bottoming indicator, however we recently negated a more bullish candle formation, a morning star off the spx 200 dma. If you look at intraday chart though, it's a zig/zag pattern that could be a bear flag, not a double bottom, I guess that depends on what happens this weekend, I believe the selling momentum has been building and the trend has changed with new lows expanding and put volume weak. My feeling is that during the mega bullish sentiment period between november and july the smart money has been distributing into the bullish euphoria and that distribution is now complete. Somebody very smartly bought a bunch of MSFT putz. Everybody has gushingly fallen in love with this stock, i keep hearing that this is the stock they will never sell, till the get old and gray. This is the kind of gushing, falling in love that you find at tops. I keep hearing people gush about how great and wonderful and world beating our technology is. Just the kind of sentiment you could hear out of japan 89 and u.s 29. I remember when people felt the same way about big blue, with it's powerful monopoly and vertical computing system, hardware and software, that was knocked off the block by the PC revolution. I believe that Softie may be in a similar position now and it's system may have some of the same vertical characteristics that Big Blue had and the internet is going to be the challenge that kills the monopoly - craps the internet operating system is FREE -g-, if the govt. doesn't first. This is the market cap leader, you know what that means for the market. bb

To: sean sanders who wrote (27240)	9/25/1999 6:37:00 PM
From: Fun-da-Mental#1	Respond to of 99985

Sean, another factor with the DJIA is the strong downward momentum from last week. It looks like it's going to slice through the 200 DMA like a knife through butter. Last week there was a big drop tuesday, small drop wed, big drop thurs, small drop fri. If the pattern continues we'll have a big drop monday. Furthermore if you take the four days together they make up a steep, straight downtrend. IMVVHO when you see a stock or index moving in a straight line it often tends to keep going that way for a while and it's hard to say when the trend will break - the important thing is to go along with it for as long as it lasts and not try to second-guess it. Then when the trend does break, change your strategy. This is only my opinion and basically I'm throwing it out there to see if others agree or not. Fun-da-Mental