Hi, Autumn (Chapter 1)
Nice to meet you. It sounds like you're quite wrapped up in "definitions". I was simply suggesting to TLC that just because someone has employed a "system" for success, yielding results better than average, doesn't mean one entirely ceases to "gamble". And from your reply, it sounds like we're in agreement, though the tone of your post suggests otherwise. Your gambling description cuts to the very heart of TLC's claim that when HE trades, he rarely/never gambles (not sure if you realized this when you fired off your rant).
Each and every mistake enumerated by TLC has also been published, posted, faxed, and broadcast in various forms so TLC's information isn't entirely new or special. His examples are anecdotal and real, but not surprising. But by proclaiming "it happened to HIM - a PRO, mind you - but NOT ME, AHA!" doesn't convince me he is the best source of information on how not to lose money. Adding extra exclamation points and hyperbole doesn't strengthen such claims, either. I very much enjoy his writing style and enthusiasm, though, and I believe his trading style and "sharing" will continue to broaden many horizons on SI, especially yours.
I'm not sure why you feel I'm obligated to expound on various definitions when a dictionary or Niederhoffer's "The Education of a Speculator" will do, nor have I ever suggested I was above greed. Also, people have been using the term "greed" and "gambling" for much longer than three years }:-)
Adding to your eloquent riposte, I believe there exists a grey area within the spectrum of managed risk (however poor) and pure gambling. I consider pure forms of gambling to be deliberate wagers involving little or no control over desired outcomes e.g. games of chance or games where (somewhat) equal probabilities of loss or gain are present. Of course, clean, crisp examples for you are rolling dice, rolling roulette balls, and pulling fervishly and repeatedly on armed slot machines for the sake of money or something else of value. Unlike attempting to manage risk, you can't "plan for" or "hedge" the outcome either way prior to the bet, nor can you alter the outcome (at least legally, and in a casino) once the gamble is made.
None of the examples you have provided fall within that definition (imo), though you may very well be wagering your son and/or your entire business. And, out of necessity, your body *must* wake up (but if it doesn't, you'll not "know" it). I suspect your business decisions are matters of limited risk, though you may *feel* it's gambling because you're unsure of the outcome or haven't been presented with a familiar scenario on which you can base your new decision. But, unlike dice (or some trades) which have left your hand, you CAN affect the outcome of wrong (or right) decisions regarding your son or business AFTER THE FACT, sans a follow-up gamble, and to a greater extent. For example, should your son get sick he can be hospitalized in Japan or flown back here. Should one of your business decisions go awry, you can seek alternative resources to remedy the situation, e.g. a buyer/partner/bank. You wouldn't, however, give birth to another, second, son and send him to Japan, in the hopes of recovering the first "lost" son/gamble ... just kidding here... I'll move on.
Ultimately, you have some sort of control once your decision is made, even after you've made it (whether you realize it or not), whereas the only recourse for recovering losses from a losing gamble, barring an outright exit from the game, is another gamble. Try not to focus so much on the definition of the word in terms of one act, but as a process, or a succession of acts and the (perceived) control of their outcomes. Otherwise, you and I will have to wax philosophical on a new thread.
With raw trading as another example, the best you can do is attempt to ride profitable trends and immediately cut (get out of) unprofitable ones, and this is where seasoned traders have learned the "art" of managing risk. In TLC's case, he has established his risk level at no more than $300 a trade. But if EVERYONE is trying to get out of the market at the same time, THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES YOU (or even TLC) WILL TOO, or at least at the price you desire... sometimes turning a trade into a potential gamble. Despite the apparent "soundness" of entering or exiting a trade, and the inherent trust, however brief, we place in a "trend", we really have less control over the market than we like to believe (and hence the expression: "The market always wins").
Unlike a succession of gambles, of which you erroneously believe your life is comprised, you have much greater control over your son, business, and life than you realize.
TLC raises many good points, and he is right about the majority of traders and average citizens losing money (to people like us). Though, he is not the only trader out there making money. He is also not the sole keeper of the "trading to win" strategy. If he makes millions, great, but if he doesn't wish to share the details or insight, then THERE ARE NO DETAILS, and so he becomes humorous reading... and that's all.
There are so many traders out there making money, Autumn... some jump up and down about it like TLC, and others utter nary a peep about their success rate.
Regarding thick black trading books...apparently TLC has one:
Message 11359759
Lastly, your example of the person running out of a building with 3rd degree burns is a perfect example of the DIFFERENCE BETWEEN JENNA AND TLC. Jenna keeps you OUT of the burning building in the first place with sound, applicable guidance, but TLC will sit there "respecting his pro trader friend" out of some distorted, macho, fraternity-like "honor" and WATCH HIM (and you) BURN.
HTH,
Scrumpy
BTW, I'm entirely in favor of Japanese schooling...no gambling there, Autumn, he'll receive an accelerated, gun-free education. He'll also learn that America isn't exactly the best at everything. |
