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To: robert read who wrote (740)9/25/1999 11:19:00 PM
From: Bob Rudd  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 801
 
rr Good points all...this could be dangerous stock to short not only due to squeeze potential, but IMO the 'True believer' quality of holders. Fuzzy accounting is no news here. No modestly sophisticated investor is going to be shocked that they use aggressive accounting and sell. Some posts indicate an enhanced web strategy...this has also been known to send shares soaring well beyond their modest business prospects. Compared to most net stocks, this is a bargain.
I'm not long this because I agree with all Mike said about the numbers, but I wouldn't short it either...the risk reward doesn't justify it at this time. Now if it took a huge bounce...

Be well,
bob



To: robert read who wrote (740)9/26/1999 3:08:00 PM
From: Michael Burry  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 801
 
Robert,

re: insider buying, you don't really understand what you're saying here. The only insiders buying are two guys who are part of the same investment management company. And they are not insiders per se. They are just managers with an ever-growing stake. I suggest you look back through the S-4's and see how much insider selling went on a few years ago at prices nearly half the current level.

re: high short interest, you are not interpreting this correctly; while it is true that a short squeeze becomes a potential threat in the short-term, it is not true that high short interest predicts long-term health of a company. In truth, shorts are usually right when they congregate, but they can be years early.

You need to back up your comments and analysis with more than circumstantial evidence. Circumstances aren't always what they appear. Moreover, companies know how to manipulate the cirumstantial evidence, and do so frequently.

Re: S&P's "fair value," just shows you're willing to take someone else's word for it rather than do the analysis yourself. That's what shorts love to see - that the bulls have done less research than themselves.

Good speculating,
Mike