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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bharat H. Barai who wrote (48682)	9/26/1999 2:47:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

>>Demand for DRAM is continuing to go up as more and more PCs are used and more and more memory is needed.<< kip w/b proud of you. the above statement was also true during a time period of 5 qtly losses out of 6 qtrs. sounds good, but means little, if anything at all. >>With windows 2000, the regular PCs may need 128 MB as optimal and 256 MG as desirable.<< unit pc growth is approaching 0% as pc prices decline at a 15%-20%+ clip every year. windows 200 is going to come out and folks will buy more pcs at a 15-20% higher cost? those that understand basic economic principles says this just isn't likely. i am quite comfortable that those who oppose my view must suspend the laws of basic economics to make their point, though. >>No new fabs have come on line. The only capacity addition is thru modernization to 0.20 and 0.18 process. The total demand is far outstripping the extra yield from fab modernization.<< the jury is still out. just 2-3 months ago, dram was at $4 and micron had well over 8 weeks of inventory stocked to the rafters. in their infinite managerial wisdom, they sold all 8 weeks worth of inventory at $3-4 - the absolute bottom! (build fabs at the absolute top and sell inventory at absolute bottoms - these folks deserve a bonus! ;-) add in an earthquake and the possibility of a sneaky inventory hold back and this situation could be caused by mere luck and manipulation. demand far outstripping supply? waaaaay too soon to reach that conclusion. i expect cpq to start shipping 32 mb in their cheap pcs again (as soon as the $3-4 dram runs out - thanks mu! ;-) several years ago, the koreans held back inventory (and nobody knew it except a few folks - mostly on this thread) and mu earned over $0.40. woe to mu when that torrent of dram was unleashed on the market, though. spot was well over cost for a lot of last q and mu will still lose money, in all probability. why? is spot a small fraction of their business? is it smaller so they can manipulate the price up? contracts are moving up now. this should help mu, if they aren't holding back inventory since last q ended. it will be interesting to see if they say how much inventory they have NOW - as opposed to q end. this is a nice move up for mu. does it have legs? too soon to tell.

To: Bharat H. Barai who wrote (48682)	9/26/1999 7:52:00 PM
From: Steve Robinett	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Bharat. You comment correctly that , No new fabs have come on line. The only capacity addition is thru modernization to 0.20 and 0.18 process. The total demand is far outstripping the extra yield from fab modernization. Morgan, the CEO of Applied Materials, recently commented enthusiastically on rising DRAM prices and then added that orders haven't yet shown up on AMAT's doorstep. Certainly going from 0.20 to 0.18 microns is mostly a factory retrofit as compared to increasing yield by jumping to 300mm, which requires a new factory. Morgan says 300 MM is stalled because no one wants to be the first to do it. That said, the question remains why, if the chip-makers are raking in the dough, they aren't bumping up capital spending. Is it just that they were burned by capacity increases before the Asian meltdown and want to avoid that again, as well as keep prices up by encouraging short supply? Or, alternatively, are all the chip-makers, including MU, looking past the current shortages to next year and seeing the possibility of a slowdown. Why put more capacity on line if you see a slow-down coming? And in MU's case, that puts in jeopardy the, say, $3+/shr it has to earn someday in the dim distant future to justify its current price. Just my $.02, but it seems to my the chip-makers lack of capital spending projects a slowdown next year. Best, --Steve

To: Bharat H. Barai who wrote (48682)	9/27/1999 12:16:00 PM
From: John Graybill	Respond to of 53903

I'm ok -- my trading is short-term stuff, and I play both sides of the beast: from expiration Friday through last Friday, I made seven trades; three were long, four were short; I had a loss of 3/4 on one of the shorts and that was less of a move than any of the winners. I'm long since Friday morning, looking for a new high today (probably) or tomorrow (if not today) on toutfest hot air. FWIW, I'm going out on a limb and guessing that MUEI will announce some kind of internet-related business surprise (a la the Hostpro deal) coincident with the earnings report. Gotta keep MU juiced for the next couple of days, y'know. BTW, looks like MUEI's earnings report will be live on the net at 4 p.m. Me, I'll be running to the doctor's office for a precautionary rabies shot. :-)