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To: TobagoJack who wrote (1912)9/26/1999 8:18:00 AM
From: Seeker of Truth  Respond to of 6020
 
Jay, thanks for the useful update on Merrill Lynch's forecast for the stock price. Interesting that it happens to be the same number as Lehman's except it's 2 months later, September 22, 2000 instead of July 21, 2000. But I don't understand the term portfolio. If we mean the current price of the owned listed investments then it's about 19,000 yen for 9984. That can't be what ML means. But if portfolio means the initial investment then we have a totally artificial number. The real value depends on the appreciation since the initial investment of course.
As to your comment at the end,you are absolutely right, 9984 management should relocate its capital to B2B.



To: TobagoJack who wrote (1912)9/26/1999 9:24:00 AM
From: Labrador  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 6020
 
>>ML notes that CMGI is valued at 10x portfolio, ICGE at 100x (B2B inherently worth more), and our 9984 ashould be at 15x, as it has a better portfolio than CMGI and also dominate Japan in that CMGI does not dominate anywhere.<<

What do you mean 10x the portfolio? Do you mean that it should trade at 10x the value of the stocks in the portfolio? This cannot be right. Do you know the value of the portfolio?



To: TobagoJack who wrote (1912)9/26/1999 12:04:00 PM
From: mact  Respond to of 6020
 
very good points jay...would hope that the next 1.7B that will be infused by 9984 will include some co's in the B2B realm...there is no reason that they shouldnt/couldnt dominate that sector too with their "keiretsu" connections...the B2C sector has alot of flash but inherently have low margins, but the B2B sector will show revenues that out number the B2C sector 10:1 within 3 yrs...perhaps we could achieve valuations similar to ICGE soon?...personally, not only should 9984 hit the B2B sector, they should also infiltrate backbone infratsructure co's...early investments in co's like sycamore,pluris,avici,foundry,alteon(now public) would be worth alot more than stakes in the B2C sector co's like eeln and insw(which are flat now)...Son sits on the board of cisco so im sure he understands this...currently i only play the backbone infrastructure players, B2B and data mining plays, i think 9984 needs to head there too...it is becoming clear that with the low margin businesses, people are becoming somewhat skepticle and they are falling out of favor...i hope Son sees this can make adjustments to keep the value of 9984 rising...personally, i think he needs to somehow take a stake in co's like sycamore networks as they are starting to sell the next generation of optical networking equipment...cerent is another co like sycamore that was bought out by csco for 7B and they havent even shipped a product yet...these are jmho's but if 9984 is to succeed over the next 10 yrs, they do need to diversify and hit other sectors such as infrastructure and B2B.

mact