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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (8113)	9/26/1999 11:30:00 PM
From: Michael Sphar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

I think its quite late to be still in fab if this material is for Christmas end product delivery. PC boards may be another story however. Some fab processing stretches into months of flow, depending on process, rework and who is doing the fab. The story of 2 million order cancelation just out this past Friday is another matter. That sounds like buyers seeing a need to trim back on prior orders and may be more significant in the end than this earthquake disruption from an investment perspective. I believe I remember hearing that TSMC was fully loaded in fab maybe 6 months ago. General business news up until this 2 mil story has only been more bullish for fabs in general so I would presume that TSMC was running at full capacity when the earthquake hit. Nobody likes to run their fabs at partial loading and the Taiwanese foundries with their many customers were probably able to achieve full loading consistently. I think Christmas is safe from the fabbers perspective but certain customers of the fabs will have holes in their product delivery plans over the next three to six months. I don't know enough about the PC board industry to hazard a guess.