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Pastimes : ASK Vendit Off Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Perry Ganz who wrote (1901)	9/27/1999 6:38:00 AM
From: Vendit™	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19374

Re: In your opinion has the 30 year bond rate led fed moves or is it the other way around. I've never tried to draw that as a comparison and really don't know the answer to your question. As far as whether the feds will raise rates again this year.........I think the odds are greatly against that happening.

To: Perry Ganz who wrote (1901)	9/27/1999 11:43:00 AM
From: DOUG H	Respond to of 19374

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> What I am really asking Does the yield on the thirty year bond price in a fed move before it happens. If this is true then we have nothing to worry about on Oct. 5 because the bond has been trading in a range (5.9-6.2) since The beginning of June Perry >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Perry, If I may venture an answer. The bond and the Fed move independant of each other although they are interested in much the same thing. Long bond investors are very interested in inflation for obvious reasons. We all know now what the Fed is preoccupied with. The difference is that the Fed and the interest markets may or may not agree with the interpretaion of the data and future of inflation. The recent Beige book reported very little iflation so I tend to agree with your sentiment regarding Oct. 5. I am also interested in Vendit's view of the market in the near term2-4 weeks. Are you still sitting with cash in reserve? I'm thinking we move up till the middle of October then retest or set new lows, building a launch pad for Dec. and beyond. Thanks, D.H.