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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (40984)	9/27/1999 2:46:00 AM
From: goldsheet	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116917

> Gold peaked at $500 in early 1987. 1987 high was $499.75 on December 14, 1987. > From early 1984 to early 1987, gold was in a bull. 1984 saw gold go down almost all year, starting at $383.00 and ending at $309.00 Gold finally hit bottom on February 25, 1985 at 284.25, and ended 1985 at $326.55. 1986 took us over $400 in October and ended the year at $396.13 1997 took us up to $480 by May and ended the year at $484 It was the most fun I had in the last 20 years, with a nice overall move from $300ish to $500ish in about 28 months. Definitely a bull market. > But the gold stocks peaked only in October 1987. As for stocks, you are absolutely right about ABX (+900%) and the TSGI (+280%). Even the lowly XAU moved from 59.13 on July 25, 1986 to a high of 155.74 on September 18, 1987, up 164%.

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (40984)	9/27/1999 7:39:00 AM
From: Dan P	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116917

Claude: I was interested in your comment about the Dow Jones and the gold market. I take it that your thesis is that since gold and the gold stocks are coming out of a bear market, that even if the Dow drops substantially, that the gold stocks will not go down as well. As you may know, Marantette has often stated that gold stocks have a hard time going up, if the overall stock market is headed down. I have argued this point with him, in that he may be right about the recent past (say the last 15-20 years), but in the 1970's gold and gold stocks were regarded as a bear-market hedge, and we may be entering a period in which the older concepts may come to the fore: i.e. gold stocks will follow gold and not necessarily the U.S. market. Maybe you could amplify on your brief note. Regard Dan

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (40984)	9/27/1999 11:44:00 AM
From: ahhaha	Respond to of 116917

Hate to rain on your parade, but take a look at the XAU for the period or better yet, the long term commodity price chart. '80 - '84 bear market down leg #1 '84 - '87 reaction bull move count #2 '87 - '93 bear market down leg #3 '93 - '96 reaction bull move count #4 '96 - '99 bear market down leg #5 The down moves in gold price are asymptotically scalloped as the price compresses and approaches production cost. If we are in the first leg of a new bull market, the price should go up symmetrically with respect to the last leg down. That means slow, boring, grinding, and not cooperating for speculation.