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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Rose who wrote (27475)	9/27/1999 4:35:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

Robert, my strategy has served me well lately...i am trying to figure out if the stock market is trying to put in a significant low here or not. the gold stocks are surprising even me...what a move! i sold AR on the bidding war news today for a solid profit, but i'm hanging on to the gold stocks. conceivably some of today's move could be corrected some over the next few days, but you don't get a sector index shooting up almost 20% in a single day if it's not the 'real thing', especially following on the heels of a 20-year bear market. today's move felt like the Dow's move in August of '82 when the bull market in stocks started in earnest. as to the stock market, friday's reversal and today's continuation did look tempting and we have a Gann trend change date and a Bradley turn scheduled for to-morrow but i'm a bit suspicious as the financials, transports and utilities all closed lower once again. also an inordinate amount of index calls were bought all the way down last week as option traders apparently speculate heavily on a strong rebound. i need to see strength in the banks and less conviction in the options market before i wade back in with serious money. i also happen to think that the tech stocks should correct some more before it's safe to play them again. admittedly i missed out on the latest rally in the nutz, which took place against all odds. i suspect now that they are close to the beginning of a correction and may well drag other tech stocks with them...i don't like the chart of the DOT, it's run into resistance here on heavy volume in what looks suspiciously like a rising wedge to me. so i think i'll wait and see what happens before i commit to a new positioning. i'm still short the indices via QQQ and SPY and a few puts at this time. regards, hb hb