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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Benkea who wrote (27496)	9/27/1999 6:54:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

WARNING --- EXTREME CAUTION --- WARNING --- EXTREME CAUTION As you know I normally do not make strong comments, but I need to come out with this severe warning. I realise that many are expecting a blow-off top, but I have noticed something, and its with the NEW HIGHs/LOWs. I have gone back 30 years again and I have noticed that the NEW LOWs have not been around the 200 range for such a long time, except during the bear market of the early 1970's. This warning should not be used as a turning/pivot point, but my suspicion is that within approximately a month, things could get very nasty. So far the NEW LOWs have been the 200 range for about 1/2 month. I do have to admit that this is not statistically viable, however I have been examining the NEW HIGH/LOWs long enough to feel that it is still a viable warning signal. If the NEW LOWs improve and gets back near 100 or better, then this warning will be negated, but if it continues to stay in this range - CAUTION!!!!!!!!!!!!! Seeya

To: Benkea who wrote (27496)	9/27/1999 7:22:00 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

WHAT TO EXPECT NOW. Sep 28, 1999. ORD ORACLE. We did not get enough confirmation to go long at Friday's low. Therefore, we are only expecting a bounce here and once the bounce is completed another decline is expected that should take the market to new lows. Our downside target is still the 1140 area on the December S&P's. For very short-term the market is oversold. The "Percent Volume" indicator closed Friday at .319. Readings below .37 are oversold. The McClellan Oscillator closed Friday at -151. Readings over -150 are oversold. There is a gap left open at the 1350 area on the December S&P's and that would be the highest we would expect the market to bounce to. On Friday, a small bullish "Hammer" candlestick pattern appeared. Usually at short term lows, the smaller the bullish candlestick pattern the less power it carries. The "5 day ARMS" closed today at 5.36 which is on the bullish side of neutral. For near term the market could either start a sideways consolidation were volume will decrease on the NYSE or make an attempt to rally up to fill the gap near the 1350 area. Either way another decline is coming that will take the market to new lows. We will look for the next sell signal after this bounce is competed. Timer Digest (203)629-3503, has us ranked #1 in performance for the last 12 months in the September 20 issue.