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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (8404)	9/27/1999 11:20:00 PM
From: Grommit	Respond to of 78959

OT - short candidate. Found this one which seems unbelievable to me. Overvalued with insiders selling all they got. biz.yahoo.com I don't short because I'm chicken, but damn! this one looks good to me.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (8404)	9/27/1999 11:39:00 PM
From: jeffbas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78959

Re: Value stock catalyst. I think we tend to define catalyst as some key fundamental thing we can see coming for a company. As you say this is very hard to see beforehand. I look at it differently. I would define catalyst more generally, as something that will prove the prevailing Street view wrong. That would include a key fundamental development we expect that the Street does not or more general things like faulty Street analysis (in our opinion). Two examples. New Holland was priced by the Street as if the current tough period would be the same as the last (with huge losses), despite there being fewer competitors, company statements that they were being more careful with inventories, early production cuts, etc. Buying it at $8+ was a no-brainer. Second, the manufactured housing industry. It is no surprise news that a lot of dealers have been added. What this amounts to is channel stuffing (of unneeded channels) by the manufacturers, which is not a short term problem to correct. I have been publicly bearish on the idea of buying these stocks since CHB was 20 and CAV 8, long before the Street took them out and shot them. I also think that where you can identify faulty Street analysis you are likely to make larger gains faster than if you are right on some fundamental development. The latter often takes time to emerge in results; the former, when recognized can result in a rapid change in valuation, as with NH, CHB and CAV.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (8404)	9/28/1999 12:50:00 AM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78959

Re: insider selling Well, Paul, Homestake Mining was one of yours that I got interested in because of the insider buying in the 7's and dearth of selling as it bounced. One of the best-gaining gold stocks today. Hope you're still in it. I am, and am still holding as a market hedge. Today was the biggest one-day rise in the Toronto metals index since October 21, 1987. Mike