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To: Mark Oliver who wrote (1959)	9/27/1999 11:55:00 PM
From: Sam	Respond to of 2025

What do I think going into the end of the year? This market both enthralls and terrifies me. Looking at moves like the ones that HLIT, PHCM, SNDK, EMLX, QLGC, BRCD, or BRCM have made (just naming a few, and not even mentioning the better known I-nut stocks), looking at the valuations on these things, just makes me shake my head, involuntarily gaping in a kind of stupor. And I find myself holding SNDK (the one I know best of the above names), justifying its price as not "really "expensive by reference to its enormous markets which are finally beginning to be visible and to explode, and referring in my little brain to the likelihood of a doubling or more of revenues over the next couple of years. So the risk is high in these high growth stocks, what happens when one of the legs that you were depending on gets kicked out? See Rambus in the last couple of days. But the cheap stocks don't seem to move, or just move up a few dollars, then down the same few dollars. So it's boring and you may as well be in MMFs, which is where I have a lot of money right now, even though I'm itching to buy more stuff but my risk tolerance is shot, I just can't bring myself to buy some of these things cause I look RMBS, and think "There but for the Grace of...." So what do I think? I'm pretty schizoid, enthralled and terrified by this market. I'm trying to wait for bargains. But then I went and bought a few hundred more shares of a purely speculative play this morning, Sonosight, which may become a home run and may become a strikeout, but boredom gets the best of me sometimes, and I think, geez, if xyz can go to the moon, so can SONO, and I don't want to miss that trip, so.... And so it goes.... s.

To: Mark Oliver who wrote (1959)	9/28/1999 12:16:00 AM
From: Sam	Respond to of 2025

One more thing: As long as Mr. Greenspan and his fellow feds believe it to be their duty to stop this inflation which, by their wonderful theories, ought to be with us but they (and we) can't see for the life of us, by raising rates, this will be a jittery market with exploding bombs, and I want cash. Once I believe that he thinks he's done his duty and inflation will remain non-existent, I will be 100% invested again. Or once I see values like last October, with some fine companies at book or even cash value, I will (I hope) buy them. Timing is a hazardous thing, I know, and I may not catch any bottoms, but I'll sleep better with my cash earning about 5% in my MMF by the by.

To: Mark Oliver who wrote (1959)	9/28/1999 9:09:00 AM
From: Sam	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2025

Mark, Another update from UMC, same link as last time, they are just appending text. Here is today's text. More optimism: ANNOUNCEMENT UPDATE - 12:00pm 9/28 (Taiwan time) UMC Group continues its efforts to return to full production. We have also completed a more thorough estimate of the damage caused to UMC Group's operations. We would like to announce the following: 1.Based on a more complete estimation of losses, business interruption revenue loss for UMC Group's publicly listed companies UMC and UTEK will be 25% of revenues in September and 12.5% of revenues in October. Therefore, total revenue loss at UMC attributable to the earthquake is NT$1 billion (US$ 31.3 million), while the figure is NT$270 million (US$ 8.4 million) for UTEK. 2.Total profit loss resulting from loss in revenues at UMC is estimated at NT$ 400 million (US$ 12.5 million). Total profit loss for UTEK is estimated at about NT$ 60 million (US$ 1.9 million). 3.UMC Group has insurance coverage for damages caused by the earthquake, as well as for interruption of business operations. Therefore, the actual financial loss for UMC and UTEK will be significantly less than the above numbers. 4.Based on our current estimates, less than 10% of the total wafers in production at UMC Group fabs at the time of the earthquake will have to be scrapped.