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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (27508)	9/28/1999 12:43:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 99985

While updating my charts tonight I noticed another weird thing in today's action. The XNG, FPP, and RUT had the most bullish bounces out of all the sector indexes I did (excluding of course the XAU). A thought suddenly came to me as a possibility. No one trusts the stock market right now with the financial stocks getting hammered again today (see the BIX, BKX and the IUX), yet no one is sure the drop in the bond is over yet either so they don't want to do any more safe haven buying than they have to and yet you can't stay in cash because the dollar keeps getting hammered. Solution, you go to gold, natural gas since winter is coming and they pay dividends, and the Russell 2000 since they are so low, they can't drop much more and have showed signs of bottoming the last quarter. One day does not make a rally but it was strange that most sector indexes and stocks I looked at tongiht gave back most of their gains yet these other ones stayed up and have bullish candles. My post regards the movement of the big money and not the internet players etc that I would consider far from the smart money. MUEI's earnings may provide ammo for a bounce in the boxmakers tomorrow and CMGI should spark some more frenzying in the nuts. I am already seeing some geting ripe for short trades soon. I am still inthe camp that we will stay fairly range bound till the FOMC but I scanned my charts back to give a larger time frame and August 98 looks a lot like now. A little more bounce here into the FOMC, a rate hike and a drop will finish the pattern out. We just need some more examples of irrational exuberance for AG to look at. Too bad some internet play couldn't have an earnings announcement to spark a BS rally for the week before the meeting like CMGI or something. Oooops <GGGGGGG> Today every stock I tracked made it to MINOR resistance areas and stopped dead in it's tracks except for the hype stocks. It is still early in the week but if we can't get a better rally than this going, we are in serious, serioius trouble. We may get more of a rally from tonight's earnings and Japan's bounce but something to keep in mind. Also the financials lack of strength coupled with Gold's strong move should be setting off alarm bells but of course no one in this market pays attention to real indicators anymore, only momentum and the greater fool theory. EDIT - Just in case anyone was following yesterday's discussion on INTC. It got close enough to my target and showed some late weakness so I am no longer bullish on it as a scalp trade and it is considered a closed position in my mind. Original target was 80 and the 79 1/2 today was close enough for me since the gap was closed. Good Luck, Lee