To: H James Morris who wrote (78749 ) 9/27/1999 8:35:00 PM From: Glenn D. Rudolph Respond to of 164687
FEATURE-Euro shares face wait for moment in the sun By Huw Jones, European Stock Market Correspondent LONDON, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Wall Street's attack of nerves is the latest and most worrying sign that Europe's stock market may be in for more pain before any gains from economic recovery are reaped. European stocks are being bogged down by the Dow's indecisiveness, a sickly dollar, worries about the millennium bug, the corrosive impact of higher interest rates on share valuations, and a revived Asia vying for global investor cash. Still, Europe is optimistic that economic revival spurred by relatively low euro zone interest rates and a weak euro will shine through, if later than hoped for. "We are in a transitional period between what was a liquidity-driven market and what will be a growth-driven market," said Richard Davidson, European strategist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. "I think we are looking at a trade off between growth expectations and tighter monetary policy," agreed Richard Reid, Chief European economist at Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette. "I think we are much more confident about the growth recovery going into next year and I would be of the opinion that the market is too pessimistic about the amount of monetary tightening we are going to see," Reid added. But he warned stronger growth does not always mean higher profits as tougher competition will make it more difficult for some sectors, such as UK retailing, to raise prices. NUMBER CRUNCHERS BACK EURO BULLS The International Monetary Fund said last week European economies are set for good growth with little prospect of a change in euro-zone interest rates between now and December. The IMF said the euro zone will grow a respectable 2.1 percent this year, and by 2.8 percent in 2000. Crucially, Europe's powerhouse economy, Germany will rebound with growth of 1.4 percent this year, and 2.5 percent next year. France and Italy are also poised to crank up activity, it said. Analysts are already raising profit forecasts for corporate Europe. IBES, a company which collates these forecasts, said pan-European earnings are expected to grow 10 percent this year, and 15 percent in 2000, both well ahead of last year. Profits are one of the stock market's twin key drivers, but the other is interest rates and even optimistic analysts agree that the only way European rates are headed is up. ROCKY AUTUMN BUT MILLENNIUM RALLY? During the lacklustre summer, strategists were hoping investors would return in the autumn armed with cash. That view is now shifting as Wall Street falters amid worries the dollar's weakness against the yen may spark serious outflows of foreign cash from the United States and that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates for a third time when it meets next week. Analysts are now looking to the turn of the year and even January or February for meaningful gains. Unfortunately for Europe, autumn is the time to remember famous crashes on Wall Street, not helped this year by bellwether Microsoft <MSFT.O> describing the vanguard of America's bull run, the technology sector, as being overvalued. Schroder Securities believes U.S. stocks could be 25 to 40 percent overvalued but says a 30 percent or more pullback on Wall Street would be a signal to buy European shares even as they dipped in response to America's woes. "European equity markets are currently close to fair value, and any falls would present an opportunity to buy European stocks at a discount at the start of the next bull market, which could be led by Europe," Schroders said. Others said Europe must wait for bond yields to stabilise -- at around 4.75 to 5.00 percent for the German 10-year Bund according to some analysts -- before stocks can regain momentum, but this process should be complete by year end. "From here to the end of the year, the broadest measure of European equities is likely to stay in the trading ...