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Strategies & Market Trends : India Coffee House -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mohan Marette who wrote (7284)	9/27/1999 9:20:00 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Respond to of 12475

I guess we'll have to wait for the actual results to get to the bottom of this. Well, it's not too hard as long one doesn't take sides. The numbers will be about the same as those in the previous Lok Sabha, give or take 15 or 20 seats. However, if the NDA were to get 10 more seats than they did last time and make it past the 300 mark, one can expect their fans to celebrate the "new, improved and stable government". But they will be fooling themselves if they think that Jayalalitha is the only greedy politician that was on their side.

To: Mohan Marette who wrote (7284)	9/27/1999 9:37:00 PM
From: JPR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12475

Opinion polls turning out to be a hazardous business Free Press Journal September 28, 1999 Public is pelting psephos - pebbles - at psephologogists Ancient Greeks voted with pebbles. Now psephologists have to endure a barrage of psephos-pebbles. Opinon polls, hazardous - Right U R, when you are pelted with psephos. Pollsters forced to change predictions midway MUMBAI: Predicting the outcome of elections has suddenly become a nightmare for countless psephologists who gained credibility after Prannoy Roy hit the bull's eye in 1989. In this era of coalitions, their profession seems to have more hazards than rewards. Some leading publications had commissioned opinion polls on how India would vote in the 1999 elections. After predicting a near landslide victory for the BJP-led NDA, some of them have begun cautioning their readers that those predictions might not be that accurate after all. A case in point here is Outlook magazine. In its August 30 issue, it had carried an opinion poll conducted by the CMS which gave a clear lead to the ruling BJP-Shiv Sena in both the Lok Sabha and the Assembly elections in Maharashtra. In the Lok Sabha polls, the CMS-Outlook survey had predicted that the ruling Shiv Sena-BJP alliance could get anywhere between 23 to 25 seats, the Congress and its allies between 11 to 14 seats and the NCP and its allies between 9 to 11 seats. In the case of the Assembly elections, the survey had predicted that the ruling saffron alliance will bag anywhere between 138 to 148 seats, Congress and its allies anywhere between 70 to 75 seats, the NCP and its allies anywhere between 64 to 69 seats and others between 10 to 15 seats. Now the same magazine in its latest issue of October 4 has cautioned its readers that finally it might turnout to be a close race between the BJP-led NDA and the Congress where the outcome of the LS polls are concerned. The magazine claims that its field observations sent by their correspondents from across the State and the country reflect an altogether different picture. In its revised prediction, the magazine claims that the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance could bag anywhere between 18 to 20 Lok Sabha seats, a far cry from the 23 to 25 seats which it had predicted earlier. The Congress and its allies it says, will bag anywhere between 16 to 20 seats as against 11 to 14 seats which it had predicted earlier. The Sharad Pawar led NCP is expected to bag around 8 seats. The report brings back memories of an incident in 1995. Publishing the results of an opinion poll prior to the 1995 Assembly elections in the State, India Today had in one of its issues predicted that the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance could well sweep the Assembly elections. However, in the subsequent issue, the same magazine revised its earlier prediction and gave the then ruling Congress party an edge over the Sena-BJP alliance. What happened after the results were out is for everyone to see - the Sena-BJP alliance wrested power from the Congress. Whether or not, history of such sorts will repeat itself will be known only after the results begin to trickle out from October 6 next month.