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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (8916)	9/27/1999 10:29:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 15132

Pete re<<<<<Given that the 1990's bull market started at DOW 2365 in 1991 and has so far lasted well into 1999 - more than 8 years vs the much shorter bull market that topped during 1976, what are your thoughts about the possibility we'll have a much longer topping process lasting well into year 2000.>>>>> Certinly anything is possible and since every situation is different this makes the discussion perhaps more academic speculative BSing than real. I think the salient point though is that we reached the area of the highs in May and have tested it more than enough times to qualify for any type of topping process and along with these tests there seems to be an underlying pattern of distribution ever since May with no raging technically powerful moves to substantial new highs which had been the case throughout this long bull market. I think we have already seen enough topping to fall into a bear at any time especially if we make another move toward the 11k area and for Bob and us the real issue is will his timing model indicate the correct position at the correct time. While I am not privy to Bob's thoughts I suspect that while he would be very disappointed if in fact we made our last visit to the 11k area in early Sept and were in the early stages of a bear, I kind of doubt he would be totally shocked given his stated concerns going into Sept of poor visibility. I still think one factor that should be factored into the equation is a model such as Bob's which gives prime importance to making sure you are in the market if at all possible since the long term trend is always up, has to at least theoretically give something up in sensitivity in calling a bear. Statistically it would be an extraordinary, perhaps impossible task to have one without giving up a little on the other. After all if bob arrogantly thought his model was ridiculously perfect which I am sure he doesn't he would recommend a margined position when bullish and short position when bearish. he realizes though as the intelligent person he is that he is simply dealing with probabilities, not proclamations delivered from on high somewhere. Anyway enough blabbing before someone gets so perturbed that they pay for SI so they can tell me I use run-on sentences(inside joke from BB.com discussion site) Marc