To: Zen Trader who wrote (100 ) 9/28/1999 2:25:00 AM From: PartyTime Respond to of 513
Reasonably good question Zen Trader. I guess a lot of it will depend on how the American public warms to free ISPs. If NetZero can get anywhere close to AOL's present subscriber base--and one must take into account the fact AOL's subscriber base will markedly decrease due to the advernt of free service--then it becomes very attractive for the likes of big ad spenders like Proctor and Gamble, et. al. Interestingly, AOL will encounter the same problem as its numbers fall concurrent to NetZeros rising. But, you're right, there has to be a point where it all evens out. My baseball coach was my math teacher and I always got an automatic C. So figuring those numbers, for the most part, is beyond my ken. A couple of points to ponder, however: First, CMGI must see something to the free ISP concept or it wouldn't have bought 1stUp, the free ISP. Secondly, it might also be interesting to ask how Ed McMahon's Publisher's Clearing House folks how it pays for all the advertising, mailings, low-cost under newstand priced magazines and pay the postage for delivering 'em; plus giving away all that money and all of those wonderful prizes and shipping costs for them. If you think about it, that seems a bit cost prohibitive also, doesn't it? But it happens several times a year, not just once! Anyway, don't ya think NetZero's free service is going door to door now? I do. And that's probably how they'll do it. Eventually the numbers needed will match. The other thought is that acquisitions and branching into other business vehicles, ones which could utilize a massive subscription and demographically targeted base, would help; or be bought out themselves by a Dell or a Disney or who knows? Food for thought. I'm as anxious as you are to learn the answer here. Perhaps analyst recommendations will tell us something once QP expires.