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Technology Stocks : Buying IPOs on the open market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: PartyTime who wrote (1689)	9/28/1999 5:18:00 AM
From: 2MAR$	Respond to of 5529

Calico Commerce CLIC... a view from steve Harmon: e-harmon.com's NetStock! by Steve Harmon ceo of e-harmon.com "for the internet investor" e-harmon.com ___________________________ Calico Commerce (CLIC) is set to purr into the public market today with its expected sizzling IPO. I say it's about time a nuts and bolts business-to-business Internet company made its way through the mire of hype. This is exactly the type of fundamental service and software that I think could power much of the "invisible" Internet. What's the "invisible" Internet? the one that will run most of the boring but bountiful ecommerce of the future. Matching buyers and sellers, inventory system controls, deliveries. That sort of thing. Exactly what Calico does with its software and service. San Jose, CA-based Calico's eSales software takes a potential customer's order and matches it with available inventories, configurations while it allows a manufacturer or assembler to check the status from the inside out. ______e-harmon.com IPO snapshot________ Calico @IPO offered 3.93 target $13.00 shares out 32.71 IPO cap $425.17 figures in millions, except target share price ______________________________________ With a target $13 per share IPO price I believe CLIC could soar passed the $100 mark but I believe a fair value could be in the $85 to $95 range. That gives it a $2.8 billion to $3 billion market cap if investors push shares that far north. There's plenty of expectation built into the stock at that level also, and I put a deal premium on it for two reasons: 1) I'm already discounting ahead consolidation in this sector; in other words a takeout premium built in from start 2) few stocks in the sector so far to choose from; that focuses attention on CLIC. That puts it in line with Broadvision (BVSN) and closely-related animal Commerce One (CMRC). CMRC is one I put on my attractive list when it was under $30 per share, now it's more than $100 per share. BVSN moves seems like ancient history -- I recall talking with founder Pehong Chen in 1996 and liking the stock when it was under $5 per share. BVSN closed yesterday at $131.25 per share. BVSN is the one to beat here. Back to Calico, the latest in what to me seems like a very limited number of companies that have gone public in this overall B-2-B datacentric-inventory-order space. Indeed, venture firms Kleiner Perkins and Mayfield first invested in Calico in December 1995 and in subsequent rounds since then, more than $22.6 million raised to date. Fiscal 1999 (March) sales for Calico (with 210 employees) were up 81% to $21 million with losses of $15.3 million which puts it in line with Commerce One. Broadvision, meanwhile, posted much stronger results with revenues up 95% for the first six months of this year to $41.9 million. Customers include Best Buy, Cisco, Dell, Gateway, Merrill Lynch, Nortel Networks, Qwest, Siemens, Telia and US West, who combined made up 67% of Calico's total net revenue for fiscal 1999. DELL in fact wasn't content just to be a customer, it wants in on the investment. DELL is slated to invest $20 million at the IPO, buying some 1.6542 million shares at $12.09 per share based upon the midpoint of the estimated range. Pro forma DELL would own 5%. After the offering Mayfield owns 17.5% and Kleiner, 16.4%. Overall I expect Calico to be out of the bag in a big way Tuesday. A real B-2-B company and maybe the next Broadvision.