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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Globalstar Telecommunications Limited GSAT -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Edgerton who wrote (7599)	9/28/1999 8:00:00 AM
From: Robert Scott	Respond to of 29987

From CBS Marketwatch - Sept 13: Schwartz: "If you look at subscriber growth, our plan at the end of the first year, the end of 2000, we expect to have about 1.2 million users. In order to meet that, we have to increase the production of telephones, but we?ll be very close to it in any event. By the year 2002, we expect to have a little over 3 million subscribers worldwide. The revenue will grow in 2000 to a little over $600 million for Globalstar. In the year 2002, it?s $2.8 billion of revenue." I hope he's right - stock would go through the roof. Must say, however, I am not as comfortable with this stock as I was before the IRID and ICO failures. Note: $500/yr for the subscribers in 2000; $900/yr for subscribers in 2002. Can anyone confirm that usage doubles in 2 years once a subscriber starts using cell services. Doesn't sound unreasonable to me.

To: Don Edgerton who wrote (7599)	9/28/1999 8:04:00 AM
From: CMon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29987

The markets you identify as potential surprises are all marginal users. GSTRF needs to sell minutes of use, not phones. A phone "in a lifeboat or survival pack" can be ignored for purposes of predicting whether GSTRF will sell enough of its product: minutes.

To: Don Edgerton who wrote (7599)	9/28/1999 10:45:00 AM
From: I. Luttichuys	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29987

Personally, I think G* could be huge. As the LOR leadership says... a cash cow. The numbers used in the business model are quite reasonable. They are only counting 10% of the market which the studies say are available to them. I may not remember the number exactly, but for example, in rural China I believe they are counting only on providing service to 200,000 customers. When you consider the population of China as a whole, and even the population in China without hope of phone service, this number is vanishingly small. The naysayers often attempt to point out that many in areas which G* thinks it has a market will not be able to afford the service. The truth is that in some cases, G* will be subsidized. Governments feel that it is not economic prosperity which allows individuals to afford communications, but rather communications which allow economic prosperity. Many of the markets that we investors imagine as important to G, are probably not. What will likely be very profitable for G are markets like China and Brazil... average people having phones for the first time ever. Almost 80% of the world's population is without phone service of any kind. No amount of terrestrial expansion or service provider mergers will make an appreciable dent in this... not for decades. And even if they had such expansion in mind, the availability of G* may reduce the incentive to spend the money on such terrestrial expansion. Vodaphone Australia has already said that G* will allow them to provide phone service to the vast areas of the continent currently uncovered without having to spend the money on expansion. To me, they sound very much like they will slow such expansion, and simply sell G. Vodaphone Australia will be in a position to provide uninterrupted phone coverage over the entire country overnight. This is where I believe the real money is. If G does achieve what we think it might, it will certainly be a rocky start. We are entering what Bernard Schwartz sees as the difficult part... not the technology or launches, but finding out whether this business plan will really work.