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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KM who wrote (30999)	9/28/1999 6:17:00 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi KM; Maybe, despite what all the journalists say, there is more than one better daytrader out there. (We're supposed to all be morons who lose our money then kill our buddies.) Re: Shades of Bilow #reply-11348939 Anyway, I thought it was time to say "I told you so" to all the guys who ignored the warnings as I, Dan3, &c., posted "fud" about this technology. So here it is longs. You were warned, I, in particular, told you that the only reason I was posting warnings to you was so that I could later tell you "I told you so". By the way, where is Alan Hume? I haven't seen him since he blew the power consumption calculations. Maybe Gunning is giving him engineering lessons, or he converted over into marketing or management... August 29, 1999, Dan3: more likely that you might buy a Rambus machine with one RIMM, then find it becomes unreliable when you add more. #reply-11100756 September 6, 1999: At 800Mhz, eight inches of copper is a long, long, long wire. #reply-11171787 One of the worst problems in managing problems in complicated digital design is apportioning blame when things don't work. This is not so much for financial considerations, but for determining who made a mistake, and, therefore, who needs to alter their work. The effect of these incredibly complicated PCB instructions is that when a box maker has a design that is failing to work on 5% of the manufactured computers, they will have a very hard time proving whether it was the memory maker (i.e. Micron), the controller maker(i.e. Intel), or the board maker (i.e. themselves) who failed. #reply-11172541 September 7, 1999: I forgot just how far off the scale this technology goes. This is not going to be pretty. ... Seeing this, I have to say that the rambus technology is pretty much doomed to have massive problems in yield and production, and probably problems in the field as well. I doubt that you will ever see rambus chips within 20% in cost to either PC133 or DDR. This will turn out to be one hell of an expensive blunder. #reply-11173315 As far as trouble for the board houses, we will have to see. It is clear that the trouble for the memory houses was already vastly underestimated, would you really be surprised if the box makers had the same sorts of troubles? The basic fact is that rambus runs a lot closer to the edge of failure than the alternate bus techniques (and hence the more complicated rules), but fails to deliver significant advantages. #reply-11172782 My only note is that this whole direct rambus for high end computers kick has had a lot of unpredicted delays in the past, so investors should not be surprised by delays in the future. #reply-11173198 -- Carl

To: KM who wrote (30999)	9/28/1999 7:23:00 AM
From: unclewest	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 93625

this why i am buying today... the following is a clip from one of yesterday's news releases. The problems occur when all three of the memory on a Rambus motherboard are filled, said an Intel spokesman. Intel is still in the process of identifying the exact nature of the problem, and the company does not have a tentative release date for the chipset, he said. In a statement this morning, Rambus identified the problem as affecting some computers with three memory slots, "relating to the combination of the memory system components, module configurations, and motherboard design." PC manufacturers said the problem would appear to be with the third memory slot, which can cause the corruption or loss of data. Compaq Computer discovered the flaws and reported them to Intel about a month ago, sources said. A Rambus executive said the problem came about because of time and technology constraints. "You have to put this in perspective," said Dave Mooring, Rambus senior vice president. "This [technology] has been coming for many years, and this is the last bump before escape velocity. "We, with our partners, designed a very robust system with a huge amount of flexibility--three connectors and lots of different module sizes. In retrospect, we probably allowed way too many configurations for our customers, because it makes for a lot more work on the back end. "And we just plain ran out of time before we announced with our partners, bringing the configurations to the level of validation that's required with a new memory technology," Mooring said. But he added that "the majority of configurations have no issues." i have never had any reason to doubt rambus statements..none. scientific perfection is not necessary in computers. if it was, intel and microsoft would not exist. the last 2 precipitous drops ended in the 50's. in the last three days rmbs has gone from a high of 94 to a low of 59 on 16 million shares. that is 2.2 points per million. but, in the last 4.5 million traded yesterday the drop was only 2 points. this indicates we are at or very near the end imo. rmbs does not break. quite to the contrary, rmbs has incredible recovery power. we saw the 50's last oct and may. in both instances 6-8 weeks later rmbs had more than doubled to 100+ i believe all the bad news is out. 3 of 4 analysts lightly tapped us. 4th remained silent. the target price was reduced 27% to 110. the share price has dropped 37%. the infrastructure supporting rambus is huge...billions already spent...no expense will be spared to get the solution. ibm previously announced they would produce and use rdram next year. any current ibm product announcements using another memory are expected not a surprise. i believe the problem is confined to dell and cpq. the timing works well...a brief delay allows the rdram production ramp up to continue. a backlog of parts coupled with increased production should bring the price down. who ever got the benchmark said his system was incredibly stable. rdram in pc's has always been projected as only 35% of rmbs revenues. 65% of the rambus story remains 100% intact. we know rdram works for nintendo, texas instruments telephone equip, brocade switches, berkely switches, at least 4 graphics chips, a video chip, a networking chipset, etc. i am not a good trader...i know that the last 2 bottoms were in the 50's...we are there. it is time for me to buy. don't forget....mooring stated... "the majority of configurations have no issues." unclewest