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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (68325)	9/28/1999 11:51:00 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

I think we probably do too much entrail-reading on this thread, but when you look at the guts of the market in 1928-1929, you find a A/D line breaking away from coincidence with the Dow about 14 months before the crash. The same thing has happened in 1998-1999, about 13 or possibly 10 months from where we are now. It probably has to do with money continuing to go into index funds and sector funds that are limited to a set list of stocks. The divergence was not nearly that clear in 1973, maybe because there had already been a considerable correction in 1970. Mostly it was just a coincident indicator then. What the line did signal was in 1980-1981, when breadth became so solid that the A/D kept moving up even as the averages faltered. Just another sign of the schizoid illness of the market--"dreaming while awake," to use a simpler clinical descriptor.