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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Green who wrote (41345)	9/28/1999 3:13:00 PM
From: long-gone	Respond to of 116764

re the short squeeze end. price based on supply & demand basics, which are VERY decent. Gold carry is dead, and not coming back! Some nasty lessons being taught today. Jobs being lost. More over, people(general investing public) are learning a powerful lesson also. We shall see a return to eveyone keeping a %(right off the bat, maybe 15-25% - then back down to 2-10%) in metals or those producers. BUT, be assured, by the time this is done, this crap about "gold is ....(you fill in the blank, I won't even type the words together again)" will be gone, & with-it the "new paradigm" valuations.

To: Don Green who wrote (41345)	9/28/1999 5:19:00 PM
From: Goldbug Guru	Respond to of 116764

That depends when the short squeeze is over. What this gold market needs to do now is pull away from the $300 mark, the farther the better. Once we go over $320 and stay above that price, our next stop will be $350.00. Today was all profit taking, the buyers will be back tomorrow if they see POG make another pop in the morning. I used some of my gold profits to buy back Barrick & Placer Dome before the closing bell today. Dow Jones looks pretty shaky, I got a feeling is going to drop again. We still have Y2K as a bargaining chip for a higher POG later on, the count down is on only 3 months to go. The mother of all gold rally should start to take off around November, assuming gold price doesn't go over $350.00

To: Don Green who wrote (41345)	9/28/1999 5:38:00 PM
From: goldsheet	Respond to of 116764

> So once the Short squeeze is over, what happens? I might as well stick my neck out for chopping. We go back to the fundamentals of supply/demand. I have always thought the equilibrium value of gold was about $325-$350. 1) The increased primary mine beginning in 1995 at 2250mt (72 million ounces) and peaking at 2555mt (82 million ounces) last year was a significant structural contribution to the drop we had from $400 in 1996 to $325 in 1997. 2) Add the Asian crisis with its 1000mt in scrap contribution to the supply and we saw gold stuck between $275-$310 for all of 1998. 3) Add the CB concerns in 1999 and we ended up at a bottom of $255. The last two factors were short-term aberrations and caused uncertainty. The central banks have now quantified the risk (400mt/yr for 5 years) and the Asians have stopped selling gold and are now probably buying. This takes us back to the basics, looking at supply demand, mine production, mining costs, etc.. In the last few years miners have made substantial improvements in processing and cost, and I think they will continue to supply at very healthy level (80 million ounces +), so I'm back to thinking the "fair market value of gold" is about $325-$350. We can always go higher, since market still tend to overshoot on the upside, as well as the downside.