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To: clochard who wrote (64849)	9/28/1999 4:15:00 PM
From: Tim McCormick	Respond to of 86076

AOL buyout rumor, JPM bounces off support, these are the heart of the painting program today. I wish everyday was like this-market down-bears pissed-bulls relieved. This could go on forever. Tim

To: clochard who wrote (64849)	9/28/1999 5:02:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 86076

Steve, one thing is for sure: both the fundamental and the technical backdrop of the market continue to deteriorate. remember however that this is still the same old mania during which it was profitable to buy the dips every time, especially the scary ones. but i basically agree with your paint program induced short covering rally comment...that is not to say that this can not continue for a few more days, especially in view of the Nasdaq short interest scaling fresh heights. this market isn't about fundamentals anymore. it's all about momentum, short covering, derivatives driven moves, etc. if this market were about fundamentals it wouldn't be where it is. nevertheless, slowly but surely some of the props are disappearing...especially important imo is the fact that money supply growth has diminished markedly this year, so the mountain of liquidity the bulls could always count on is not what it was anymore. higher interest rates also make the big stock buy-back programs an increasingly questionable affair from the point of view of fiscal prudence. since managers' remuneration is increasingly tied to stock performance it would be too much to expect the practice to disappear overnight, but the '87 top was also preceded by a wave of mergers and LBO's which was the 80's way of retiring equity for debt. so we know this BS can't go on forever, but we don't know for sure how long it may still go on. my earlier argument for a potential blow-off was based on two considerations: a) historic precedent argued for it and b) bubbles inflate almost always beyond the even most optimistic expectations. i suppose this has to do with the fact that no-one is willing to stop a bubble that's in full swing, since it would amount to political suicide. however, as the massive short squeeze in gold and the rally in the Yen have shown, markets do at time escape the control of those who are officially or unofficially involved in their manipulation. and that's the main thing the bears can pin their expectations on: that one day, the same will happen to the stock market. the trick will be to find out WHEN.