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To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (7331)	9/28/1999 6:40:00 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12475

I, turned bearish in Julay-Aug 97 and after a brief technical bullish stint from Feb-April 97 extremely bearish in May-June 1998. Haven't changed my opinion since then. Well, you are right if you are focusing only on the largest cap stocks. However, outside of that universe, there has been a "stealth bear market" on for quite sometime now. This is the time to be bullish about them. IMO, if investors DCAed into a fund like the Vanguard Index Small-cap Value Fund over the next year or two, they should do very well going forward. Or they could choose to pick stocks and buy a few quality large-value stocks and a few more at various cap levels down the chart. Remember, it is not a stock-market; it is a market of stocks. This is what Jim O'Shaughnessy has to say about the "stealth bear market" : In fact, if you compare the average market price-to-sales ratio today versus 2 years ago, you'll see that there are more stocks trading with price-to-sales ratios below 1 now than 2 years ago. Remember the market last year was powered by the nifty few. What really happened was their outstanding performance masked a stealth bear market, where many stocks got absolutely hammered.

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (7331)	9/28/1999 6:50:00 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Respond to of 12475

Continuing on that vein, I am in the process of building a "permanent portfolio" of the following 18 stocks: 01. C 02. DIS 03. GE 04. HWP 05. JNJ 06. MMM 07. MO 08. MRK 09. PG 10. WMT 11. ABT 12. AUD 13. SYY 14. SYK 15. MCD 16. DBD 17. PAYX 18. TROW Almost all of these have increased their dividends for the last 10 years or more (exception : #14, which started paying dividends about 7 years ago, and is on track to making the grade). Why do I focus so much on dividends even if I don't want the cash payments right now and even if the account is taxable? Simple -- I don't believe that stock-price appreciation is a given. Some would call me old-fashioned, I'm sure! Note that not all of them are undervalued right now. And at this moment, I will be comfortable buying only a few of them -- 2, 6, 7, 11, 13, 16. And I think a few of them are more than fully valued right now -- 3, 4, 10, 17. But I am prepared to wait and wait and wait for the tide to turn the other way.