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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (27737)	9/28/1999 8:15:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Heinz, i agree with all those bullish factors and it pains me to be bearish when so many are bearish, but i believe as Michael Burke said a while ago there is a large debt that will have to be paid because of the amount of bullishness over the last year (or several years) and I believe that this debt will be paid at some failed oversold bottom where all the bulls are looking at the bull market indicators and saying, buy. The bulls are arguing with the fed, arguing with rates, arguing with higher oil and commodity prices, because they think this is a new era and you will be able to live a virtual/digital life and non of that stuff will matter =gg= I believe because the public has become so overwhelmingly bullish and the investing public is all piled into a narrow bunch of issues, that this bubble will resolve as Galbraith notes, and i won't be one to miss out on it -g- >>>>so the bulls cannot count on the mountain of liquidity anymore that has driven the market in recent years.<<< Wouln't you say part of that is the gold carry trade that has dried up like a rose in the middle of the sahara --gg-- bb

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (27737)	9/29/1999 8:44:00 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

heinz: You said, "the stock/bond yield ratio continues to linger at absurd levels". Do you know of any source for data that follows total stock buybacks? A statistic which combined stock buybacks with dividends, and expressed it as a % of market cap, would be more useful than just dividend yield. If a company buys back 1% of its stock every year, isn't it returning the same amount of money to stockholders as if it has a 1% dividend? Why count one but not the other?