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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (32642)	9/28/1999 7:24:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

Jacob, >>Why else would anyone buy gold (or gold stocks)?< With this runup there are some momentum players as well. They'll drop it as fast as they picked it up. Gottfried

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (32642)	9/28/1999 10:32:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

The surge in gold can mean only one thing: lots of people are beginning to be convinced that inflation is on its way. That's confidence. Wrong, but confidently so. Fact 1. A few European central banks said they won't sell much more gold than they've already sold during the next 5 years. Comment 1. Soon the market will recognize that there are more than 7 central banks in the world; and that the others just might take advantage of this unexpected rise in its price to dump a little. Fact 2. These same central banks said they won't loan out their reserves to short sellers to the same extent that they've been doing in the past. Comment 2. Lo and behold, an opportunity to make some money by others who have gold that just sitting there bearing no interest, giving no return whatsoever, ... Hmmm, what these other bankers might do when they find there's a big unserved market that will allow them to make a buck or 2 (times several million) Fact 3. Some big short sellers panicked. They drove the price up to unsustainable levels. It's already fallen back from $330/ounce. Comment 3. Expect the price to drift lower as the panic ebbs and the short sellers recognize that the fundamentals for gold haven't changed one iota. JMHO, Ian.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (32642)	10/4/1999 7:48:00 AM
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, I'm glad to know that the 100 AMAT Calls you bought for less than 40K in October is at least 430K now. It would have been greater had you not sold the other 100 Calls when the stock was in the early stages of taking off. But anyway you are doing Good and can even afford to be Bearish and Bullish at the same time. Yes, Alan Greenspan is still the Boss that he can cause the Market to be Bearish with the wag of his Tongue alone. But this time, as he is growing older and realizing that he may not be re-appointed next summer (Clinton might asked him just to stay as acting Chief so the next president have a chance to choose whom he likes and if the younger Bush becomes the president, Alan has no chance since the older Bush blames him for his presidential defeat when Alan did not lower interest rates before that election) --- he can not afford a Bear Market during his remaining months in office. A Bear Market to coincide with his retirement? People will remember him not for the Good he has done for the economy but for the Recessions and Stock Market Crashes during his tenure of office (remember the crash in 1997? --- historians will say). Alan is no longer the same Alan that with his Tongue made worse the crises in Asia, Russia and South America. Lately he was even saying that the high valuations in the Internet Stock have their excuse for being! What a Turn Around! But nobody else seems to notice the Transformation. Parry is right --- relax a bit: --- "Mr. Inflation, come out in the open first before we drive you away." No more acting like Vigilantes firing in the air scaring not the Inflation Thugs that are nowhere in sight, but the residents they are suppose to protect. (but who knows, Parry might be serving as a mouthpiece of the Transformed Alan). And who says a little more Inflation is bad for the economy? Run-away inflation is bad like in pre-Worldwar II Germany when people carried grocery money in wheelbarrows, if such tales are to be believed. In Silicon Valley, people became richer during the Carter years because of Inflation. They got double digit raises in salaries while they smartly avoided buying expensive goods, thus coming out way ahead. The sky-rocketed value of their homes also helped a lot to afford them to buy new and flashy cars that is continuing up to this day. People learn how to let Inflation be a FRIEND and MOTIVATOR for them to Work hard and improve themselves. A living example is the people of the country of my birth. Before, when the Dollar was worth 2 Pesos, the country was composed of 10% Rich and 90% Poor. Most people were Idle --- no jobs and if there's a job, go ask the Politician by Kneeling. Now that the Dollar is worth 40 Pesos, there are millions of Contract Worker Filipinos working in 130 countries in the world who send at least half their Dollars home (100K of them are in Taiwan alone). That does not include millions of others who settled permanently in the US and Canada and other European countries that are sending money to invest and create jobs back home. That's why among the Asian countries that were affected by the monetary crises, the Philippines fared well because of the dollars flowing into the country from Filipinos abroad --- as if they have one Giant dollar earning industry! They also created a Tourism industry by visiting home once in a while. Because of Inflation, they were forced to work harder so as to create a Middle Class with little help from their government. Run-away Inflation is bad; but if Inflation is nudged a little Up --- why not?