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Technology Stocks : THQ,Inc. (THQI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rogermci® who wrote (11701)	9/28/1999 10:44:00 PM
From: Dennis K. Showers	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 14266

I am still here lurking and reading every post. It was nice to see some of the old names recently that have not posted for some time. At the risk of putting the kiss of death on THQI I will attempt to show why I think the charts are extremely bullish at this time. We all know from the astute fundamentalists on this board that THQI is as strong as ever and poised to show continued increases in earnings and market share. I enjoy looking at the chart pictures and am very excited by the recent development. First, on a three year chart, construct a long term channel by projecting lines from the lows on 9/1/98 at 9.5 and on 3/24/99 at 16.375 for support and from the highs on 2/26/98 at 21.833 and on 1/6/99 at 32.125 for resistance. Secondly construct an intermediate channel by projecting lines formed by the low on 3/24/99 at 16.375 and the low on 7/27/99 at 26 for support and from the highs on 4/29/99 at 26.93 and on 5/14/99 at 28.25 to form our intermediate term resistance line. Lastly construct a line across the high closes in August and early September to form short term resistance. Use the intermediate support line for the short term support line. The long term channel was never violated and the intermediate channel only twice but neither by 3% (the amount needed to confirm a breakout) and only once did the price close outside that channel. Short term resistance was briefly penetrated several times but the penetration never held and the close was always within the channel. Now after that lengthy setup here is the analysis. After several attempts to breakout of the August/Sepetember upward short term channel we finally closed above it on 9/13 and retested the broken resistance line for support on 9/19. At this time I was happy but complaining that we needed more volume to give meaning to a short term breakout. (The volume was steadily decreasing from late August until that point on 9/16. On 9/17 the explosion upwards put the closing price exactly on the intermediate resistance line with the high having just penetrated. We are still within the intermediate channel. The following Monday on even greater volume the stock gapped through intermediate resistance and poked it's nose through long term resistance before closing just below it. Tuesday on relatively low volume the stock hovered. Wednesday on another very high volume day we exploded through long term resistance and in my book broke out officially. Remember that first of all a breakout must be at least a 3% gain in the stock price from the point of the breakout. On the day of the breakout I had the breakout point at 41. 41 X .03 = 1.23 or 42.23 for breakout level. We closed at 43.25. A breakout! But Thursday after opening higher the stock price fell and pieced the new support line (the old resistance line), recovered some and closed down to form a bearish looking piercing pattern. However, the volume decreased. Friday we again retested support which again held on even lower volume and the low was higher, this time just touching the support line before recovering. And finally on Monday and Tuesday of this week even though the overall market was down we managed to post small gains and our volume was lower and lower as though we are waiting for the overall market to take off. When the overall market does move positive I feel we will have a good day an high volume and be off to new highs at around the 62 level. Look at the Eidsy chart to see how fast it can happen. The bottom line is that I think the Dow, Naz, and Russell are all showing an end to the recent correction with candlestick reversing patterns having been set up in the last few days and will begin to rally from these levels. THQI has broken short, intermediate and long term resistance with volume that has steadily been increasing since April. We have just witnessed a classic breakout. We should easily exceed earnings estimates. Tis the season. News is everywhere. Analysts are increasing. The lineup is in place for the fourth quarter. Management is solid and intact. The balance sheet a picture of perfection. Institutions hold more and more shares. Mutual fund ownership increases daily. The WCW grief is behind us. WWF should be an excellent move. The short interest is higher than ever. (I just don't understand that part. Why in the world would the big boys be short?) The gap that occurred last week could be the breakaway gap. (If so then expect two more gaps, the measuring gap and the exhaustion gap.) I am pounding the table to all my friends. BUY! BUY! BUY! (Do I have it right, Todd?) On the negative side as I commented some time back I get nervous when giddy enthusiasm takes over. (I don't know if I am giddy but my head sure feels light.) I definitely see a giddiness to the recent posts and I feel that the big boys sometimes use that to their advantage. However, I think that this could be the move that we have been waiting for the past three years to partake in. I am in my seat with my helmet on and the seatbelt fastened. Comments? Whitetail