To: Swami who wrote (21892 ) 9/29/1999 12:41:00 AM From: Cameron Respond to of 62347
Well.. the nanos call the TSE 300 at 6840 tomorrow, or down about 35. However, they do underpredict early in a reversal, which they've already said has started. At this point, the variance has historically been in the 80 to 90 point range... so ... if I may interpret for them, they actually mean the market should close around 6930 (up about 50). Over the next few days, their forecasts will catch up to the actuals... but the longer it takes, the longer the duration of the recovery. I'm not too happy with the individual stock nanos at this point. The MCF ones shouldn't be pre-predicting and the ATY ones are just flakes... so I've sent them on vacation for a couple days with more back data and asked them to reconfigure themselves until they're more accurate. The market nanos had the most back data, followed by MCF and then ATY in a distant 3rd positiong. Their performance also follows this pattern... so I hope that having more back data to "learn" from will make them more robust. At this point, all three populations will now have about the same amount of data to work with. The ATY populations seemed to be having trouble with the post-4 for 1 split restated data when I first started them running so I just cut it off at that point and only provided post April/88 data. In retrospect maybe that was a mistake... They use a full year of data in the model which means they only had from April/99 to the present to test themselves against. I guess time will tell if the amount of back data is the issue. In any event, sitting on a beach drinking Pina Coladas won't do them any harm and they promised to send us a postcard. I'll let everyone know when I hear back from them - LOL!!!!