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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (52080)	9/29/1999 12:20:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Jim L; re: <best thing to do is to buy the big cap consv. plays... > I disagree for one reason; these large caps Institutional fav's will be more directly tied to a total market selloff; as they are the very stocks owned by the general growth, or value funds (non energy funds) - and theses types of funds will dump Oilpatch stocks before the Energy Funds will. I think the 2nd tier - md/lg caps are the play... the ones owned by "real" energy fund mgrs, not the nilly-willy "general" funds that really do not know the sector. James Cramer had some interesting comments on the market & Oil today: Concerning the continuation of an overall market selloff - I agree with JJC here; watch the financials ! <<Has everybody who wanted to sell already sold? That, after all, is how bottoms get formed. To me, for stocks like the financials and the retailers, the answer may at last be yes. These stocks did not seem to attract the momentum to the downside in the down-200 carnage that I expected. In fact, this marks the first time in ages I've seen this kind of relative strength in either group.>. ....But, as much as I love Cramer; he just does not get the "Oil Thang".... ie: << I don't trade the oil futures. But these stocks could be telling you that oil is done going up. If that happens, we could have a nice combination of lower stock prices and bond prices that are about to go higher. >> ... I think Cramer's main point is that he is wishing to see signs that inflation is not ramping; and is viewing the collapse in OSX prices as indicative as a coming collapse in crude prices.... WRONG ! ...gotta trust the crude fundamentals here - Supply & Demand & OPEC, OPEC, OPEC... Supply is shrinking - dramatically so. Demand - is the potential catalyst for a bubble - anyone notice N Korea's rise in Crude use (demand growth) of late ? and most importantly - OPEC will comply through March - they have no choice... 20% decline into improving crude price fundamentals - most obvious question here is; do you think the OSX continues to outpace the total market selloff on a 2:1 basis; and will the percentage retrace here, become equal to last Octobers OSX retrace during the total collapse of Global Markets & $8 Crude Oil ? ... risk vs. reward - I see less risk than before - and much, much higher reward potential near, mid & longterm. - gotta be a buyer in that scenario.