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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Secret_Agent_Man who wrote (27804)	9/29/1999 12:35:00 AM
From: Secret_Agent_Man	Respond to of 99985

Berkshire Hathaway hits a 52-week low...9/27/99 > boards.fool.com "1) (IMO) BRK.B did not drop today because of news in Barons. Drops are still large block B sales, two at around 1:30. Someone with a very large position is moving out of BRK and just does not care. 2) The cover the Economist this week has a story on the delicate condition (read bubble dangers) for the US stock market. a) There is insufficient earnings growth to keep the anticipation of growth on top of growth needed to keep the market at these heights. * b) if we fall it may be more dangerous than not to increase liquidity. - inflationary (reduced value of dollar denominated assets ( read stocks) - further drives offshore money out of the market Nonetheless, while I HATE this continual drop day after day after day, I believe we are still in the best position (unless you time things and then it would be cash) of anyone. What I do not understand is why we are the only one's who believe this. 3) Assuming that it would not frighten forever the pending retirements of the boomers and their equally vapid "gen x" kids. I would just as soon see the market drop 3000 pts right now and get it over with. But I do think this will happen until two conditions occur (which they may). a) increases in interest rates under the strategy better to pay now than pay later. (Watch the FMOC meeting in early October carefully.) If this happens then look for b) increases in unemployment coupled with high personal debt (existing now) driving down consumer spending 4) the only thing I am pretty sure of (feels right, numbers are right) is that we will be in better position that our general market holders (esp. the hi tech legions) when this all settles out. 5) but taking comfort where I can .. at least I have not heard from lee21 after his conversion to bullish nor long missives regarding the intrinsic joys of forever owning BRK .. except for Derek (and he is a special case, all his own.) 6) Finally, and again IMO forget all the hollow rhetoric about how God has special looked in favor on BRK and how Buffett is his prophet ... this market is better understood as a one year (maybe less) market right now."