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To: Ian@SI who wrote (143121)	9/29/1999 12:20:00 PM
From: Ed Forrest	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

>> I suspect that you're in the majority; that I'm probably a lone minority tilting against a windmill. Ian.<< Ian You are of course correct but the popular myth will prevail.

To: Ian@SI who wrote (143121)	9/29/1999 12:27:00 PM
From: Fangorn	Respond to of 176387

OT Ian, re >I'm probably a lone minority< There are at least two of us. VBG

To: Ian@SI who wrote (143121)	9/29/1999 10:10:00 PM
From: jhg_in_kc	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

ALL GAINS in 1999 in the s&p index have essentially been erased. It may be up less than one per cent by looking at the chart i see. the dow was 9000 in jan. now 10,200 up 11%. this is shaping up to be the worst year in stocks since 1994 when dow was up only about 4% (after some fed tightening) If the greenman is targeting the stock market, he has succeeded this year so far. IF HE RAISES rates again, the dow could go to 7500, down 25%, and possibly in one day. the s&P could take a 10 to 15% hit, also in one day. Now the last time the Dow was at 7400, Greenspan said the markets had "Seized up!" and there was a "credit crunch" and the Fed made emergency calls to New York money centers, offering reassurances, than began a bail out of Long term Capital Management, and then a week later in an EMERGENCY CONFERENCE CALL, cut rates by 1/4%, the first of three such cuts. Oct 5 is almost a year to the day that the Fed bailed out the stockmarket by turning on the money faucets. It would seem "inexplicable," one of the Greenman's favorite words, for him to mark this anniversary by raising rates given the S&P is FLAT for the year... Because the result would be: the indexes plunge right back to the levels which prompted him to cut rates in the first place. THEN HE WOULD HAVE TO TURN AROUND AND CUT THEM AGAIN. THIS WOULD MAKE HIM LOOK FOOLISH AND CONFUSED. Of course, he could rationalize this by saying there is no "seizing up" now. BUT THERE SURE WOULD BE IMMEDIATELY AFTER HE RAISED THE RATES!! I FEAR OCTOBER: all the baddest of bad things which have ever happened to investors in the stock market always come just before or during October because on October 1, the guys in the suits have to report how they have invested JP Morgan's money for the first three quarters of the year, and after that in three short months they have to say how they have done for the whole year. So if things are going bad and not likely to get better, they sell as fast as they can, hoping to buy back cheaper and show a good quarter in the next year. Surely Greenspan must know this. It is not as if the market were up 50% for the year with inflation running at 8 to 10%....and wages rising at the same rate.... SO WHAT WILL HE DO? my head tells me he will do nothing; my heart tells me he will raise rates out of some kind of dogmatic madness. GREENMAN must be enjoying this time and looking forward to OCT 5 when ALL EYES WILL BE UPON HIM!!! He is THE MAN! His wife will give him a special treat the night before the Fed meeting. Hopefully, this will relax him so he will be more tolerant of "irrational" human desires....