Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Gemstar Intl (GMST) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Morris Catt who wrote (388)	9/30/1999 2:48:00 AM
From: FLSTF97	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6516

I present this model more to understand the downside (assuming a positive end to the litigation). From my perspective this is important when one tries to decide whether to buy a richly valued stock. The upside to my assumptions are quite huge. As NYStew points out, my impression hits are assumed to be much lower than other numbers. Just achieving the market penetration of 90% into the TV market would probably actually drop 100 mil to the bottom line and increase valuation by $3 bil. I think that a well run company with GMST's business model may even be able to achieve higher net margins which could add another $3 bil to the valuation. The real upside (even assuming a decrease in CPM rate) is the recurring ad revenues once the product is proliferated. In end effect any model can be tweaked to give you the result you want to see. I like to think that I should not try to fool myself especially when considering a highly valued stock, thus I take a (very?) conservative approach. I offer this more to stimulate discussion and in the hope that people will point out weakness (especially in regions where I wasn't conservative enough)in my assumption.