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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Apollo who wrote (7225)	9/29/1999 2:38:00 PM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

OTOT Trading for beginners Since my friend's IPO closed so strongly yesterday, I decided to try and parlay my winnings by buying still more--on margin--at the opening today, intending to do my first ever "day trade." But I had to run to attend a conference on--get this!--how the US should deal with any significant future financial disturbance. So I placed my order with Schwab before the market opened and caught the train for work. Realizing it might be a volatile day, and slightly uncomfortable being on margin, I checked on how the new purchase was doing by cel phone from the train, and was tickled to be up more than 10%. I rushed in late to the conference, and sat through a couple of actually very interesting hours with lots of big shot financial types discussing the risks of a potential crash, how the system should respond, etc. The whole time I was grinning and doodling and thinking how much Q, GMST, and so forth I would buy later with the proceeds from my skyrocketing day trade. At the first break I rushed up to my office to check on how things were going, and was appalled to find my new profits almost wiped out. The chart showed that ITXC had peaked a few minutes after the open, up 30% from where I got in this morning, and then had begun to give back the days gains. I just managed to liquidate my day trade with a few K profit, but had learned a great (and painful) lesson in never taking anything for granted and never, ever, doing short-term trading while not in extremely close touch with the market... a wiser, altho not as much richer as he expected, tekboy

To: Apollo who wrote (7225)	9/29/1999 10:58:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Stan, Fatboy certainly did something I'd never try, not being an analyst. Though he didn't show us all the detail of his model, he obviously created one and is reviewing it. Let's follow up on his bottom-line numbers. Assuming a net profit % of 40 and a PE of 30x gives the following stock valuations: YR 2000 $2.4 bil Yr 2001 $3.8 bil Yr 2002 $5.0 bil Yr 2003 $5.6 bil YR 2004 $6.1 bil Using that information, we can back out the numbers to arrive at his EPS projections. I divided his projected market cap by 115 million shares and divided that again by his multiple of 30 to arrive at his projected EPS. His projection for EPS is on the left and the Stephens projection is on the right: YR 2000 -- $.70 / $.81 Yr 2001 -- $1.10 / $1.17 Yr 2002 -- $1.45 / $1.73 Yr 2003 -- $1.62 / $2.34 YR 2004 -- $1.77 / $3.15 Notice that his estimates are pretty close to the earnings in the Stephens report in the early years but only half as much in the final year. I suspect that the reason for the dramatic divergence in the later years is because Fatboy assumed the same net profit of 40% throughout the years while the Stephens analyst assumed a gradual increase to 59% in the last year. (I didn't take the time to follow Fatboy's revenue projections to see how those compare with the Stephens report.) I don't follow the Gemstar thread but anyone is free to copy this post in that one. --Mike Buckley