To: Ed Forrest who wrote (143132 ) 9/29/1999 2:57:00 PM From: JRI Read Replies (1) | Respond to
Ed, as many have said to you in the past, Dell is not in "a 8 month slump"...While Dell is no longer vastly undervalued..it's stock price WILL grow, per annum, at a rate close to its growth rate, or 25%-40% per annum (assuming interest rates stay at current levels)...if you (and others) were unfortunate to buy during the 4 week "parabolic spike" period from mid-January to mid-February..........that is really too bad (in all seriousness)...but in reality, after 3 years of unbelievable returns (over 150,200% p.a.)...something had to give...again, it is unfortunate that you may have not participated in that...but, it is unfair (or skewed) to compare this year's performance to those (absurdly high) returns of yesteryear....The stock will come nowhere close to that in the future (on a consistent basis)...HOWEVER, it will be a fine technology play....and should bring consistent annual returns (like I said) of between 25-40% p.a.......could even be higher if interest rates go down below 6% (which they should from time to time) or if the Dell hits a nice growth quarter or two (temporary pop) OR the (BIG BULL) market awards it a premium (various factors)....HOWEVER........it would not surprise me to see Dell p.a. returns to be (more consistently) at the lower end of that range (25-40)...allowing the P/E to gently fall down over the next few years....
