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To: gdichaz who wrote (42847)	9/29/1999 4:40:00 PM
From: Kayaker	Respond to of 152472

Chaz, CBS Marketwatch has pretty good bond reports... NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Climbing oil prices, increasing supply in the corporate market and more evidence that the U.S. economy remains healthy pushed the bond market into negative terrain Wednesday.... cbs.marketwatch.com

To: gdichaz who wrote (42847)	9/29/1999 4:48:00 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 152472

on TBond yield... not a thorough review but some thoughts in order of importance as I see it: commodity prices are ticking up... gold recovered to over $300 per ounce incredibly... European central banks announced no more depletion sales of their reserves... they are the primary cause for gold moving down to $260-270 recently in a 3-year long slide... they prefer income producing reserves such as USA TBonds... but now they are saying "not giving it away"... I maintain that TBonds have essentially replaced gold as the world reserve asset crude oil does not relent, in the $25 per barrel range and not letting go... while higher costs are absorbed thruout economy, this acts as a dampening tax IMO... market got this one backwards... higher gas prices will slow down growth, not usher in inflation what the Fed and Bond experts continue to miss -- in the USA there are almost no barriers to entry on the supply side... growth begets growth on demand and supply sides simultaneously Asia is picking up steam in their economies, no denying... I maintain Japan will not sustain this pickup in the nearterm, like one quarter out... aside from village burning in East Timor and earthquakes in Taiwan, Asia is rebounding and draws away capital... TBonds must attract that capital with slightly higher yields the USTreasury market is enjoying a surplus, and we see the paradox I mentioned two weeks ago... with a surplus one would expect lower rates... but what it brings is more zealous and combative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve... I believe they used the surplus as their backdrop for curtailing the "outofcontrol" expansion of money supply since last Sept98 LTCM bailout and credit market freezup TBond yield is still in its 5.85% to 6.15% range, just at the top of range now... with stocks not rallying appreciably after the minipanic last week, and with bonds not rallying appreciably either, only one conclusion: CASH ON THE SIDELINES IS BUILDING RAPIDLY !!! HOLD ONTO YOUR STONES FOR A NICE STRONG RALLY !!! /Jim Willie