Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : C-Cube -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Black-Scholes who wrote (45584)	9/29/1999 4:43:00 PM
From: JPM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50808

Here's my math on the Taiwan earthquake... I am assuming that 100% of CUBE's production comes from TSM (so that my calculations are a worst-case scenario), and I assume that 50% of CUBE's revenues go to TSM for supplying chips (again, this is a high estimate, but this also produdes a worst case scenario for us investors.) From TSM's web page... August TSM sales: NT7,012,000,000 extrapolating into Q4, Q4 sales are NT 7 Billion * 3 = NT 21 Billion... assume additional 4Billion for 4th quarter in sales, which is the busiest quarter. So, TSM Q4 sales = 25Billion NT dollars... 1NT dollar = 0.03 American Dollars btw TSM will lose NT 2.8 (close enough to 3B) Billion loss in sales (from their web page) during Q4 from the Quake 3Billion loss = 1/8th of TSMs Q4 sales 1/8th of CUBEs 4th quarter supply will decrease (assuming worst case scenario, ie, CUBE only gets TSM chips)... so CUBE retains 7/8ths of their Q4 supply of chips.... Let's assume 50% of CUBE sales go to TSM for foundry (I think it's more like 20%, but 50% is ok for this.) Assume CUBE Q4 revenues = 120MM, that's 60MM in Taiwanese chips (50%, which i repeat i believe is way too high)... assume CUBE only has 7/8th of this available in Q4 from TSM... that's 52.5MM of the 60MM they need... CUBE's inventory as of last Q was 12MM... so this is more than enough to make up the 7.5MM shortfall from TSM in Q4. So basically, from this, I gather that even if CUBE does have a supply shortfall in Q4, their inventories will be sufficient to compensate for this. J